SE wisdom - end of day trading

[IanD]

Anyone looked into trading end of day analytics software which runs models to deduce what stock to buy and sell ?
Relatively simple if the models work. it tracks shares based on download of days prices and monitors your portfolio, when to get out and when to buy in.

I know a few of the clever credit data analytic guys from a previous employment joined up and did something similar building software based on building lots of modelling and historical data interpretation a while back.

My very early investigation of what small things I can do either to reach retirement or something partially different to my current day job earlier than otherwise.

Been talking to a company, software doesn't look the most sophisticated (compared to stuff we look at in work) and the cost of it is relatively high for software and a very nice little earner if you do releases to groups of people every few years.
Company have been about for a while and offering that if doesn't return more than cost of software in first few months they return your money, you still have any shares /trading profit.

PM if preferred.

Need to check out the company side more but any thoughts ?

[tenkfeet]

I always wonder with these things if the software was that great why would they need to sell it?

You have a pm

[pete]

Sounds like a pyramid...


I love a good pyramid scheme, can we rent a hotel conference room and sell it to others?

[graeme]

Not quite a pyramid, more of a numbers game.

Sell your bogus software to 1000 people, offer money back if it doesn't work, give money back to 970 people (because it's totally random whether it works or not). You're still up 30 sales of snake-oil software, with no exposure. Notice they don't offer to cover your trading losses, just give you your money back.

Get the 30 people who did make money (by sheer luck/odds/probabilities) to evangelise how amazing the software is and reel in the next 1000 mugs.

[IanD]

Yes agree that could be the angle, since as you say not covered for trading loses.

Wondered about how valid end of day analysis only is, there must be opportunities for gains in the right places but is it still effectively too random as doing the buy/sell at start of day is the unpredictable time, and if real traders are watching all day every day that is just 1000's of opportunity and analysis points a day rather than once post all day trading and company announcements.

If you have a big enough sample of people and have no risk/exposure yourself (the trading/software company) then 1 in 30 successes is still success and profit to you.

And I'll be the one setting up the hotel room with a testimonial about the 1 trade that made 20% in 10 days, best thing ever !

[graeme]

Another version of this is the football predictor.

Send an email to 10,000 people, half of them predicting next Saturday's match will be a win for Team A, half predicting a win for Team B. (Let's ignore draws for now).

5,000 emails will have the wrong prediction, 5,000 will be mildly impressed that you were right.

Send the correct 5,000 another email the following week, this time split 2,500 predicting team A, 2,500 team B.

Again, half wrong, but 2,500 starting to wonder if you're onto something here...

Repeat each week, 1,250 correct, then 625 correct, then 312, 156, then 78.

Eventually, you've got 19 people CONVINCED that you've got some mad system that can predict scores. They'll pay ANYTHING for your next prediction, because it simply cannot be a coincidence 9 weeks in a row, and they can make it all back by betting on the next game.

[mwmackenzie]

Another version of this is the football predictor.

Send an email to 10,000 people, half of them predicting next Saturday's match will be a win for Team A, half predicting a win for Team B. (Let's ignore draws for now).

5,000 emails will have the wrong prediction, 5,000 will be mildly impressed that you were right.

Send the correct 5,000 another email the following week, this time split 2,500 predicting team A, 2,500 team B.

Again, half wrong, but 2,500 starting to wonder if you're onto something here...

Repeat each week, 1,250 correct, then 625 correct, then 312, 156, then 78.

Eventually, you've got 19 people CONVINCED that you've got some mad system that can predict scores. They'll pay ANYTHING for your next prediction, because it simply cannot be a coincidence 9 weeks in a row, and they can make it all back by betting on the next game.

Great plan...

Can you please all add your e-mail addresses below ..

[BiggestNizzy]

Listened to a good podcast recently that talked about trading (might have been a Freakonomics) even the professionals are rubbish with your top 1% doing well, the next 10% keeping just ahead of the market with the rest not even keeping up with the top 100 shares.

[Mikie711]

I have quite an extensive portfolio and use trading analysis software to track and trend individual or groups of stocks. It also has extensive filters than can be applied to any stock and give real time L2 data, which I must confess I don't fully understand.
The thing with shares is remembering your not trading value but perception, and everyones is different. RNS that I have considered great news for a particular share have had quite the opposite effect on the price and vice versa.
If these software programs actually worked the major trading houses wouldn't be spending millions on their own bespoke software and would have ditched all the traders long ago opting to pay shareseasy.com there $99 joining fee and sitting back letting the cash role in.
The only way to be successful in share trading is research, research and more research. The filters and analysis tools just help you whittle down the myriad of companies until you find the few that fit your criteria. Then it's down to you to research the sh*t out of them before committing any of your hard earned to their business.

Find yourself some free or cheap analytical software and play. Set up some virtual portfolio's based on various strategies and see how they perform before committing to real money dealing. It's a lot harder than it looks and trends cannot predict unexpected events that can have quite far reaching consequences when it comes to stocks and this can lead to your 5 bagger plummeting while you wait for your software to detect a potential trend.

Have a read of "the little book that still beats the market" by Joel Greenblatt which covers the Greenblatt formula for picking shares. This is a longer term strategy that has performed exceptionally well over the last 30 years. Phil Oakley, of share pad fame, takes it a step further using ROCE x EBIT yield to refine the formula. I have 2 portfolios set up using both of these and one is up 15% and the second 17% this year. You rotate the shares each year based on the formula to make sure your using high value growth stocks.

[campbell]

IFA career next, Michael?!

[mwmackenzie]

Listened to a good podcast recently that talked about trading (might have been a Freakonomics) even the professionals are rubbish with your top 1% doing well, the next 10% keeping just ahead of the market with the rest not even keeping up with the top 100 shares.

Was it selling you software

I once tried day trading using VSA software and after a few months I walked away stressed but slightly up, not enough to make a career of it so jacked it and went back to Uni to do what I'm doing now... My dad has followed this stuff since I was young and follows it daily, almost an obsession but he, a man I look at as an expert in this field finds it too stressful to day trade as he's not got the margins to lose. From our experiences the 'market makers' will fluctuate the market to shake out all the smaller fish and take their money as our stops were too close to the market at the time (Gamble bigger get wiped out less lol)... The day that was the final straw for me was when I called my broker to come out of a trade thinking I was a grand or so up to find I was actually a grand odds down.. I couldn't fathom it out initially but it turned out there was a 'glitch' in my live data feed and it was running behind and the market had dropped suddenly, I think i threw some furniture across the room a few times and decided this wasn't the industry for me! Over all I didn't lose but my gains were very marginal and the stress was phenomenal...... There is money to be made and lots of it is from selling said software and getting folk to believe that Jo Public can make a living from this when in reality these crooks are there to bleed you dry, day trading is tough lol... Having a long term portfolio on the other hand can work well as my ex-wife has a huge portfolio and technically could live off the dividends if ever she needed to, she'll never need to lol...

[point n squirt]

Ian for whats its worth i have no great skills with shares etc but i set myself a five year plan to reach semi retirement which is ahead of the game three years in well i say five years more like thirty five. Consists of working really hard for thirty years taking on little to no debt then putting everything into property which is what i know and where my skill set lies but if your hooked up 8 to 10% or more return is doable. Market timing is important as with everything .They say a crash comes in cycles of eighteen years so save up be brave and invest when markets crash they always return roll on Brexit The hardest bit is when cash happy not spending on a money pit car. One year to go then im out cant take anymore "this job would be awesome if it was'nt for the customers"

[cstrachan]

"this job would be awesome if it was'nt for the customers"

Us customers are awful

[IanD]

Cheers will take a look into the book out of general interest even if nothing else.
Maybe I'll be in IT for longer, I'm not expecting or trying to find something that earns me my days pay in a minute or for a day of stress and potential losses, more a few things to supplement current or have some kind of income whenever I stop or change working.
I've also got the ability to return to IT contracting in some form for significant money increase if I really want but trying to look what the alternatives could be.

Found a few simple free examples or free for a period modelling software to at least take a look at some of the basics and have a play. I'll definitely not be going where you did Mark with stress etc

Any best way places to get the complete end of day stock figures for LSE as a simple download and save ?'
Not bothered with intra day stuff so either free or something I can pay small amounts of money on a per month basis that isn't a commitment.

My initial but brief searches seem to come up with US sites, surely there must be loads of UK services as the core EOD data looks easily and freely available at a per company level so isn't that hard to combine and package up.

Well it is unless your programming skills are 20 years out of date like mine or you are hands off in the robotic automation I've been establishing in the last 6 months at work

[point n squirt]

The Stirling mob are cool for cats its the Hamilton punters twenty five years of verbal abuse builders have feelings too.Lol