2030 - No more new ICE

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alicrozier
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by alicrozier » Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:08 pm

Interesting stuff in BBC click today, Lithium enabling uk manufacturing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... revolution

There is a bit on the cost of ownership (based on an average softroader). Overall cost of ownership is marginally less for electric but I think it’s very optimistic that the electric car has 50% residual value after 4 years. Who is going to realistically pay 17k for a 4 year old Hyundai snot carrier even assuming the technology isn’t completely outdated by then considering the rate of progress. Also the tax situation will go south for electric once there isn’t enough revenue from ICE.
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by Mikie711 » Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:34 pm

Don't disagree with that but not everyone can afford a new electric car so at the moment it's only the reasonably well off can afford those savings. And how is the second hand market going to take to used electric cars when there are still big questions about battery longevity.
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by rawsco » Sat Nov 21, 2020 6:14 pm

The residuals did worry me but I’ve leased it so don’t care, 4 year warranty, no servicing (bar brake juice and wiper juice) so pretty much fixed price cost for 4 years. I expect the tyres to take some abuse. And don’t panic the M4 isn’t going anywhere I’ve not gone totally anti petrol...
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by Mikie711 » Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:31 am

Talking generally not specifically aimed at you. Further down the road they will tax electric cars, can't afford not too. It's the how that tax will be calculated if everyones recharging at home how do you differentiate between house and car for usage.

edit: fully expect Robin to jump in and give me a load of ways in which I am wrong, and I sincerely hope he is right but I still have a huge nagging doubt about the whole battery side of this switch. I just think it's a sticking plaster and not a solution.
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by alicrozier » Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:50 am

Tax likely to be some form of ‘road pricing’ pay per mile deal.
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by Mikie711 » Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:30 am

Interesting watch

Watch on YouTube

and following on from that, how green our electricity really is


http://grid.iamkate.com
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by pshanks76 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:52 pm

I think infra and vehicle costs are still a big issue.

There may feel like plenty charging options right now, but wait until there are 100 times the amount of electric vehicles on the road all competing for charging points.

Then there's the home charging issue - great if you have a driveway but so many people, especially in cities, don't have a driveway or even a dedicated street parking space, so for them home charging is impossible unless they install a lot of on-street Infrastructure.

And there's the cost and how accessible these types of vehicles will be to lower income families. Like others have said, there will be worries about buying second hand and wondering when a massive battery replacement bill will be due.

For cities they should be focused on really excellent mass/public transport but I fear that will not be in a good enough place by 2030 either.

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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by neil » Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:43 am

rawsco wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:55 pm
Can’t ignore the cost savings either. My leccy rate averages 5p Per KWh (sometimes I’m being paid to use) when I’d be charging the car so that’s £0.015 per mile vs about £0.25 which turns a £250 a month diesel bill into 15quid (which I’ve easy recouped and more by being smarter with my leccy tariff choice)
The running costs are heavily stacked in the electric cars favour currently which wont last if there's mass takeup. If you're paying 5p/kWh then that's heavily subsidised (15p is about the cheapest a kWh is normally), versus petrol/diesel which is around 80% tax. So subsidy/tax free your £15 vs £250 a month becomes £45 vs £50.

There's definitely a place for electric but I'm not convinced 100% adoption works. Taxi's and vans doing intergalactic mileages round town seem an obvious place to start and would solve a lot of the air quality problems. In rural areas petrol/diesel makes more sense.

The other thing is generation capacity. To run the entire UK car fleet on electricity you'd need 83TW/h (based on 2019's 278 billion miles at 300Wh/mile). The UK used 346Twh last year so that'd need to go up by 25% to just cover the cars. I don't believe there's currently that much new generation under construction and 2030 isn't very far away.
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by Mikie711 » Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:00 am

Neil, did you watch the interview with Harris, the guy he is speaking too is in charge of the Nation Grid. Recon's it isn't a problem.
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by rawsco » Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:24 am

neil wrote:
Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:43 am
rawsco wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:55 pm
Can’t ignore the cost savings either. My leccy rate averages 5p Per KWh (sometimes I’m being paid to use) when I’d be charging the car so that’s £0.015 per mile vs about £0.25 which turns a £250 a month diesel bill into 15quid (which I’ve easy recouped and more by being smarter with my leccy tariff choice)
If you're paying 5p/kWh then that's heavily subsidised (15p is about the cheapest a kWh is normally).
It’s not subsidised and includes applicable tax. I do however pay 30p per KWh 4-7pm. I’m on a variable tarriff that changes rate every 30min. On average my daily rate per KWh ranges from about 7 if it’s stormy and windy to about 11 if it’s cold and settled and cloudy
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by robin » Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:12 pm

Commercials (big diesel lorries, etc) will go hydrogen for the long haul I think. BEV is challenging in that application.

Battery degradation is a real thing with some horror stories out there, but I think the reality is better than the early models would indicate. Typical degradation on Tesla Model 3 using a lot of fast charging is 5% over 40k miles. The wear rate is lower using home charging. People running mostly on home chargers are seeing 2% typical over 50k miles. That's on the previous gen battery tech. The newer 4680 cells should be better.

The BEV platform cost is coming down. Obviously a lot of focus has been on more expensive cars to start with because that's where the manufacturers have been able to make some money. Both VW and Tesla are heading down the market slowly, with 20k target price next.

I suspect UK gov will rebalance VED by 2030 so as to preserve their income. We may also see a fuel duty like levy on fast charger usage, though I expect home charging to remain cheap as part of normal domestic energy supply.

Fuel duty will be pushed onto Hydrogen used for transportation.

The bigger question is where will all the Hydrogen generation be. UK gov should be spending money on state run green Hydrogen production. I fear they don't have the balls and instead will be dragged into hydrocarbon based Hydrogen production by Shell et al. This isn't the end of the world but clearly isn't ideal either.

Given how much Mr Johnson likes to compare Brexit and Covid related issues to WW2 I am surprised we don't have a war effort to churn out wind farms, solar farms and tidal electricity conversion plus hydrogen electrolyser factories. And we should be throwing money at the boffins (as he would call them) to beat the world with British pluck and ingenuity.

Alas, none of that will happen beyond some tokenism. Instead of becoming an energy exporting nation (we could be an electric Saudi), we will be paying Europe and Korea etc for the privilege of letting them run their kit in our waters and then sell us the electricity. The SNP don't seem to have been able to prevent that from happening in Scotland either, more's the pity.

Meanwhile the spivs will continue to make hay ...

All IMHO, of course.

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neil
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by neil » Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:35 pm

Mikie711 wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:00 am
Neil, did you watch the interview with Harris, the guy he is speaking too is in charge of the Nation Grid. Recon's it isn't a problem.
:lol: Okay maybe I should have watched it before commenting!
rawsco wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:24 am
neil wrote:
Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:43 am
rawsco wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:55 pm
Can’t ignore the cost savings either. My leccy rate averages 5p Per KWh (sometimes I’m being paid to use) when I’d be charging the car so that’s £0.015 per mile vs about £0.25 which turns a £250 a month diesel bill into 15quid (which I’ve easy recouped and more by being smarter with my leccy tariff choice)
If you're paying 5p/kWh then that's heavily subsidised (15p is about the cheapest a kWh is normally).
It’s not subsidised and includes applicable tax. I do however pay 30p per KWh 4-7pm. I’m on a variable tarriff that changes rate every 30min. On average my daily rate per KWh ranges from about 7 if it’s stormy and windy to about 11 if it’s cold and settled and cloudy
Every day's a school day! I hadn't realised that sort of tariff was available. That makes a smart meter worth getting. Is that Octopus Agile or someone else? Have you got the car charger hooked in to the pricing using IFTTT or do you have to manually set the charge time?
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by rawsco » Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:39 pm

Octopus Agile, Neil feel free to sign up with my link well each get 50 quid ;-).

Http://share.octopus.energy/ivory-crane-557

I’ve absolutely demolished my bills with Agile with a little minor modifications to lifestyle but nothing daft.

The Tesla hasn’t arrived yet but pre Agile I was paying about 100-120 a month for leccy (have a hot tub) and about 30-40 for gas,

I’m now using basically nothing for gas as use the heat pump when leccy is cheap and flip to gas when leccy is dear 4-7 but it rarely comes on then, or the weather conditions mean the pump isn’t efficient enough, the heating works that out based on the prices (although not to 30min intervals but I’m working on that)

So back to bills I’m now down to less than a tenner for gas and 75 for leccy almost halfed my bills

All I needed to do was configure the heating, and hot tub to only heat when it’s cheap and use timers on appliances.

I plan on using some solution like IFTTT to fart about with the car charging pretty sure there are apps for that but I might just have a go at making something myself in an AWS account
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by rossybee » Sun Nov 29, 2020 12:04 pm

Here's why the current situation won't work in ten years, when you have idiots like this :damnfunny

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/ ... cv-HxRgAwM
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Re: 2030 - No more new ICE

Post by neil » Sun Nov 29, 2020 12:46 pm

rawsco wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:39 pm
Octopus Agile, Neil feel free to sign up with my link well each get 50 quid ;-).

Http://share.octopus.energy/ivory-crane-557

I’ve absolutely demolished my bills with Agile with a little minor modifications to lifestyle but nothing daft.

The Tesla hasn’t arrived yet but pre Agile I was paying about 100-120 a month for leccy (have a hot tub) and about 30-40 for gas,

I’m now using basically nothing for gas as use the heat pump when leccy is cheap and flip to gas when leccy is dear 4-7 but it rarely comes on then, or the weather conditions mean the pump isn’t efficient enough, the heating works that out based on the prices (although not to 30min intervals but I’m working on that)

So back to bills I’m now down to less than a tenner for gas and 75 for leccy almost halfed my bills

All I needed to do was configure the heating, and hot tub to only heat when it’s cheap and use timers on appliances.

I plan on using some solution like IFTTT to fart about with the car charging pretty sure there are apps for that but I might just have a go at making something myself in an AWS account
I'm very tempted but will need to do some sums as their gas rates 25% higher than our current one and we get through a lot of gas at the moment. We're also getting through lots of leccy though so it might work out better.

What sort of heat pump have you got? I maybe need to look at something like that to get the gas bill down.

I've been having a play around with the app from www.ifttt.com which seems pretty idiot proof. So far I've added geofencing onto the central heating but it looks like it'd be easy enough to switch things like heaters based on the energy price.
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