Independence SE Poll

[Alistair]

Just to poke my 2p in....

We're currently embroiled in a battle with local council, local SNP MP and Education Secretary over funding for our wee boy at nursery. In our area it has been really badly handled and he is going to miss out on approximately £2,500.00 of child care per annum (which we will fund of course - even though we pay taxes for it like everyone else) due to the Scottish Governments inability to deliver one of their flagship policies at a local level. Poor show and nobody from the SNP can explain how they will fix it - or deliver on their promise of increased pre-school funding post independence. Empty promises I'm afraid - and I see and hear it on too many of their ideologic policies.

In short - no thanks - which is a shame - as I'd love to be positive about it.

Alistair

[Mikie711]

I understand that many things are up in the air but even that being spun as a positive.

However you still did a selective quote and haven't answered my question. Do you see any negatives?

Edit : I'm not sure you can blame Westminster for not negotiating. Again if it was work would you entertain someone saying "if i get a new job offer what will you pay me to stay". Most employers wouldn't even get into that discussion... They'd try and get the person to stay, why are they leaving etc etc.

Sorry, missed that. For me personally yes. I see a tax grab on high wage earners to help redress the social imbalance that exists in Scotland today. I hope they have more sense than to try taxing the O&G industry and actually try to encourage exploration with tax incentives but doubt that will be possible in the short term. First general election will sort out the Faslane situation. I fear many companies relocating, especially in the financial sector, on the back of uncertainty after a yes vote and a lot will depend on the then new Government to smooth the transition, but we will lose a few. We will have more than a year as I doubt the proposed date for independence will stand. Time frame is to short for what needs to be sorted out. So much will depend on the post vote negotiations. I don't foresee any change in health or education, they are what they are right now. The EU will sort itself out one way or the other, I doubt we will get straight into NATO or be included in any of the G summits. We will definitely slip a bunch of rungs on the world ladder and be seen as just another unimportant Northern European Country, however I don't think that is a bad thing, in fact probably something the UK needs to do, we just don't have the clout we once had.
Do I expect any of this will come to pass ........ no. But as I said earlier I worry more about what will happen after the inevitable No vote. But I guess time will tell on that one.

[Lazydonkey]

Thank you. I actually agree that this is inevitable post yes but it's all been swept under the carpet. That's the worry for me. Too many free unicorns and not enough "listen this might be tough" type conversations.

I wonder how many yes voters would change their mind if they were presented with a 45% tax rate or if the Scottish version of hmrc announced a massive clamp down on day rate contractors pulling most of their money via dividends or other tax dodges.

Personally speaking I'm not in the breadline and an increase in tax wouldn't mean me loosing my house..... But i want to see what I'd be getting for that increase. Now clearly no party will ever be elected by promising to raise taxes but if yes do succeed I can see a huge backlash as the unicorns vanish and the harsh realities kick in.

[Mikie711]

I don't know about that, I'll have to dig but pretty sure we pay more into the existing tax system than we get back. What I see is a hike in the current 45% rate and a tightening of the day rate tax system is a definite possibility, but then it is under current administration.
Let me check on the first point and get back to you.

[graeme]

On the subject of independence, I jokingly said last night, "I'm out!", and then it struck me how applicable the Dragon's Den analogy is to the independence referendum, or at least my take on it.

Good ideas sometimes leave the den with no investment from the dragons.

The Dragons only invest if the product is good, AND the person selling it is not a muppet, AND the figures add up. So many times ideas get rejected because the person selling it is an idiot, or annoying, or bumbles the pitch, or can't explain the idea properly, or probably most importantly they cannot come up with financial figures which add up to a good investment.

After the pitch on Dragon's Den, there's usually a bit where you think "Hmmm, that's not a bad idea, I'd probably buy that". Then the questions start and you realise there's no patent protection, no performance figures, they're already losing money through incompetence, and the person stood there is just a dreamer/hippie/creative-knitted-type with no business sense whatsoever, and all the dragons drop out one by one and the dreamer walks away empty handed. And it's entirely their fault for being crap at business and pitching their ideas. It's not the fault of the idea itself.

If Salmond stood in the Den and pitched independence to the Dragons, he'd walk away with nothing. The idea of independence is theoretically plausible enough to make it to the Den, but Salmond is utterly detestable, hasn't got any answers, and his numbers don't add up. There are many good aspects of the Yes campaign that I want to support in isolation, but the overall pitch is mingin'. If you don't get the full support, you leave with nothing, and that's the way I see the vote going next month.

And for that reason, for me, it's not a good investment. Somebody semi-likable could walk in next with the same idea backed up with some decent facts, and I'd probably invest.

[graeme]

I don't know about that, I'll have to dig but pretty sure we pay more into the existing tax system than we get back.

That Radio 4 program about statistics did a piece on it where they concluded that it varies from year to year (sometimes more, sometimes less), but over time it averages out to Scotland getting back very slightly more than we contribute. Somewhere in the order of £1k per capita if I remember correctly, nothing significant compared to the error/assumptions they had to make in the calculation. I drew the conclusion that it's pretty even over time, and we get out what we put in.

[Mikie711]

Graeme, the radio 4 program took oil revenue and split the revenue over the entire UK, ie they added it to the tax per head for the entire country, the outcome being that it is very close but year on year.
However if you take the oil field and split them geographically and apportion the tax accordingly then the picture is markedly different. There is arguments for doing it both ways but given that we are talking about independence and the Northern fields (Auk, Clyde and Fulmar are roughly where the line falls) would fall under Scottish waters then taking the second set is representative of a post independence position.

[Rosssco]

You can use this to get an idea of what you "get back" in the form of services vs. what you pay in..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13633966

Over a certain threshold you end up paying a not insignificnat amount in that you'll never see again.. As a single man, living on his own with a decent salary, it seems I contribute quite alot.

[Mikie711]

I do my own tax every year, comes with being paid in USD, and I already know I pay a lot in tax and apparently receive very little back!

[BigD]

You can use this to get an idea of what you "get back" in the form of services vs. what you pay in..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13633966

Over a certain threshold you end up paying a not insignificnat amount in that you'll never see again.. As a single man, living on his own with a decent salary, it seems I contribute quite alot.

I do my own tax every year, comes with being paid in USD, and I already know I pay a lot in tax and apparently receive very little back!

This was precisely why Poll tax was introduced so that individuals paid their fair share not based on the value of the property they live in; but Scotland didn't like that.

[Lazydonkey]

I do my own tax every year, comes with being paid in USD, and I already know I pay a lot in tax and apparently receive very little back!

I'd bet you'd pay even more if you were paid in Stirling as a PAYE employee



Edit : Sorry mike not picking on you personally but it's an interesting point to contrast with the pride of being Scottish and voting yes as it's the thing to do etc etc. Ultimately people will do what's best for them. And I can't blame them for that.

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[Scotty C]

from a friends facebook last night.

[BigD]

from a friends facebook last night.

Voting yes is accepting that the wallpaper can be changed but only to RED!

[j2 lot]

And when you get the keys you discover all the extras you need to pay for, that were included in the deal with your last house

[GBOBM]

The way I see it is that the "pledges" from either side can be trusted about the same amount as any "pledge" from a party trying to get elected in the general election. They mean well and think there's a simple solution but when they finally get into the nitty gritty, they find out that there's a whole load of un-knowns which mean they can't deliver or mean they only deliver a half-arsed version of what they promised.

Politicians are the same whether they are Scottish, English, Irish or Welsh.

There's an argument that once we vote we "can't go back". Is it not the case that if we vote YES, we enter into negotiations and could still potentially pull out if the deal is a load of rubbish?