Independence SE Poll

[Mikie711]

North Sea oil is running out, maybe not

This Bently on the back of this means the future for the North Sea is bright.

[Rosssco]

Old Woody might not fully agree Mike.. And it's not like he's just finished an industry wide review or anything..

http://www.energyvoice.com/2014/08/sir- ... ence-vote/

[mxvx]

Oh but Prof J Howell doesnt agree...it appears they based an article on a mis-quote. Shocker.

http://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/lo ... s-1.533669

[tut]

Any guesses as to what the % turn out will be?

tut

[Mikie711]

He downgraded his own figures from his own review. And on the front page of the same site this. Adopting Wood's recovery proposals could lift revenue to £365billion over 40years but he OBR estimate £57billion over the same period. NOt much difference there then

[mxvx]

It seems everyone is in agreement then

[Rosssco]

He downgraded his own figures from his own review. And on the front page of the same site this. Adopting Wood's recovery proposals could lift revenue to £365billion over 40years but he OBR estimate £57billion over the same period. NOt much difference there then

If you watch the full ~30min video, he says part of the reason he is now speaking out is that he is continually misquoted by certain 'organisations', and wanted to put the records straight.

Again, if you watch the video, he is quite clear that the NS will continue to produce til 2050-odd, but that the production amount at that stage will be a fraction of current levels, and therefore not produce meaningful tax levels for a Scottish Government. He estimates a significant reduction is production starting in the next 15 years or so. Given the state of many offshore facilities, and the money being spent to keep them going, its no surprise a good few will become uneconomic in the not too distant future.

The N-56 report is funny actually, given that the guy that runs (N-56) it is also part of the Yes campaign. They've taken the usual nationalist tack of 'Planning for the best / Hoping for the Best' to produce to super headline figures.. Even Wood agrees the OBR figures are pessimistic, but far more realistic than those produced by N-56.

[Mikie711]

All based on current development, nobody knows what other discoveries are still to come. As technology and rig availability/cost improves deepwater drilling will become more prevalent. We haven't even scratched the surface of the deepwater fields yet. I know of at least 2 DW, one new build and one complete refurbishment, rigs en-route to the UK later this year/start of next with long term, 5-7year contracts. That is a $800million - $1.1billion investment per rig at a conservative dayrates. And that is just rig time, not counting operator overhead. They are not pumping that much commitment into an area on a whim.
One thing to remember, Wood group have a vested interest in the recovery technology, so I take with a pinch of salt anything someone says when they have a commercial interest in the outcome.

[Rosssco]

Absolutely, and Wood even says in the video that current investment levels are about the ~£20 billion mark per year in the NS, so its not going to die off soon, or even the next few years. However, we have to be realistic about our expectations of production, and not just concentrate what we can get out of it in its current state, and whats over the hill, as this is not a general election or membership of some international organistaion we can pull out of if it doesn't suit..

How can we make a decision that will majorly affect the economic viablity of Scotland based on cherry-picking of facts around one of the most variable commodities around? Just seems madness to base things on that.. As the video clearly points out, this is not just about our generation, or even necessarily the next (although they are likely to feel the effects), but of future generations when there is no oil and gas production in the NS.

My understanding is the the UKCS has been pretty much explored. Investment in new technologies has allow previously uneconomic reserves to be tapped. An example if the Clair Ridge project, which despite the fact that its has "just been found", I worked on the platform design about 4 years ago. It wasn't designed for a small reservoir or for ~20 years. Great, but the reality is that eventually cost will (as its doing now to an extent) overtake technical capability. Again, how can you make the case for things that haven't been found yet? Is the oft-used offshore phrase "you can only p**s with the c**k you've got.." not appropriate here?

Wood has commercial interests in recovery technology, so surely he has the most relevant input, knowledge, data and experience to estimate current reserves and what is achievable with current and future predicted technology?

[Scotty C]

[rossybee]

You should see thinfourth's thread on PH

[Rosssco]

I sometimes feel like an expert on both politics and economics given some of the stuff I have read online during this debate..

Get onto the Bookface and you'll feel like a Professor..

[mxvx]

Certainly beats what I should be doing. This is very civilized compared to lots of others, for now.

[Mikie711]

I don't think there has ever been a subject that polarizes opinions quite like it. And it is important and indeed will affect future generations.
Oil is not he be all and end all of the subject either. If it's around for the next 15-20 years then great, it helps to ease the transition to an Independent Country and allows time to evolve our economy to survive without it, which we will have to do anyway. Develop new technologies, industries and stimulate growth in the existing all things I still believe a Scottish Government can achieve better than a Westminster.

Oh and Scotty, these are for you.

[roadboy]

I'm English so staying out of this one but....

I don't think there has ever been a subject that polarizes opinions quite like it.

This thread kind of reminds me of the religion thread a few years back.

Both very civilised in the discussions but completely polarising opinions.

A very interesting read for an outsider like me though.

Dan