About The Economy? (FALC)

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j2 lot
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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by j2 lot » Sat Jan 29, 2011 12:37 am

campbell wrote:This may be off-beam but isn' the "base rate" totally, utterly irrelevant to your average person just now? It has dropped significantly in 2-3 years but most mortgages have "floor rates" so there can be few people paying much less than 3%.

0.5% just allows the Govt to pretend they are doing something wonderful for us all.
You are dead right - our tracker finished in Nov 09 and I was expecting to get a crackin deal - reality was we ended paying more for the tracker rate we got than the one we had just come off, iirc we are paying 3.67% when we were on 1.75% and that was by far the best deal we could get without paying the lender a fee for the privilege :evil:
Feckin banks got us into this mess and don't have the decency to allow us to properly benefit from low rates
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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by offshorematt » Sat Jan 29, 2011 12:47 am

Agree about the bank thing - they're hedging their risk but screwing over the same taxpayer that was pillaged to bail out the system in the first place. But ultimately the ultra low base rate wasn't to 'pretend they were doing something wonderful' just to win votes - it was an attempt to get people to start spending and hence try and stimulate a stalled economy. With hindsight, they perhaps dropped to 0.5% too quick - where do you go from there when growth is still stalling? :|

It says a lot that after 14 years of Blair/Brown, every action by the government is assumed to be a scam :lol:

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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by cla5h » Sat Jan 29, 2011 11:56 am

campbell wrote:
This may be off-beam but isn' the "base rate" totally, utterly irrelevant to your average person just now? It has dropped significantly in 2-3 years but most mortgages have "floor rates" so there can be few people paying much less than 3%.

0.5% just allows the Govt to pretend they are doing something wonderful for us all.
Nope, got a fee-free, fully flexible, lifelong base rate tracker in 08 (after Northern Rock, but before Lehman's) - it's base plus a fraction of a %. I doubt I was the only person who took it out, and I guess it wasn't the only one on the market at the time either.

Where's that 'smug' smiley...

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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by graeme » Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:03 pm

I had one too. Offset Tracker, Base + 0.65% for life. Sold the house last year though, so lost it. :(
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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by delands » Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:09 pm

I was on .5% less than base rate with mortgage through work.

The smilies on my face when I saw I was due minus amounts every month...

Stopped now though as I only get 2yr deals. ;-(
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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by campbell » Sat Jan 29, 2011 7:51 pm

Scott M wrote:
campbell wrote:
This may be off-beam but isn' the "base rate" totally, utterly irrelevant to your average person just now? It has dropped significantly in 2-3 years but most mortgages have "floor rates" so there can be few people paying much less than 3%.

0.5% just allows the Govt to pretend they are doing something wonderful for us all.
Nope, got a fee-free, fully flexible, lifelong base rate tracker in 08 (after Northern Rock, but before Lehman's) - it's base plus a fraction of a %. I doubt I was the only person who took it out, and I guess it wasn't the only one on the market at the time either.

Where's that 'smug' smiley...
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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by Mike Scib » Sat Jan 29, 2011 8:59 pm

graeme wrote:I had one too. Offset Tracker, Base + 0.65% for life. Sold the house last year though, so lost it. :(
We have 0.58 above base for life and still got the house.....currently paying 1.08% :mrgreen:

Shame the money saved is going into house renovations, and the house was built in 1870 so there are a few....don't think they used levels in those days! :lol:
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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by neil » Sun Jan 30, 2011 6:47 pm

Mike Scib wrote:
graeme wrote:I had one too. Offset Tracker, Base + 0.65% for life. Sold the house last year though, so lost it. :(
We have 0.58 above base for life and still got the house.....currently paying 1.08% :mrgreen:
And I thought my 1.1% above base was pretty good :D I dont seem to have any more money left at the end of the month though :lol:
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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by clareduncan » Wed Feb 02, 2011 9:07 pm

Woohoo soapbox opportunity!

The economy is virtually suffering from stagnation, beggar all growth accompanied by cracking inflation. As it has already been said, the BoE's usual method of combating inflation is to use the base rate to reign in spending. However, when we're suffering from stagnant/negative growth the last thing the government should do is reduce spending. Hence the conundrum, high inflation requires reduced spending, growth for recovery requires stimulated spending!

Indeed, companies are unlikely to offer pay rises at the moment as employees have no leverage (back to the supply demand argument), as opposed to the more publicly acceptable argument that they use of 'cut backs must be made' (obviously not true of all companies but some of the larger ones really are taking the mick now)! That being said, the companies which really are struggling seem to get the most stick and opposition from their employees, plunging them further into depravity. For example, the trade unions of BA seem to consider it acceptable to ruin the holidays and Christmases of thousands of hard-working people because their new (not even existing staff) are to receive a salary that is still considerably over and above that of market rates, consequently shredding their companies reputation and forcing the remaining customers, who hadn't already migrated to budget airlines, to run with their tails between their legs.

That doesn't really answer the question of when you can start asking for a pay rise. In my opinion, the government needs to stop spending so much time bitching about the last government and review their current tax system. Yes fuel is an easy tax, yes the government needs a massive amount of tax income to start repaying their horrific deficit, yes fuel is environmentally unfriendly and we should all be getting the bus and yes it is going to run out one day... but boll**ks!!! The massive rise in fuel prices is a huge contributor to the rate of inflation, and the government could be stemming it by adjusting the tax rate. By all means rack up the tax on cigarettes and alcohol, we don't need them to get to work, but taxing us for getting to work and heating our homes is not going to encourage us to spend our way out of a potential double-dip! On the same topic, I'm afraid Campbell's sound advice about outgoings slightly below income isn't an ideal route to recovery either. I think this is the reason that the government seems to allow people to get into massive debt because they want us to spend spend spend! That being said, unless you are insanely altruistic or know you only have a short time to live, I'd stick to Campbell's philosophy!

All in all, companies will only get away with this as long as the majority of people are willing to accept it. My guess is that as the hysteria calms down, the average Joe will have a bit less sympathy for their employer and begin negotiating again!! Here's hoping anyway!

Right rant over! Can you tell I'm the kind of person that throws things at the news!

P.S. You are quite often better off with a fee-based mortgage, the savings are usually considerably more than the fee!

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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by ruadh08 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 9:14 pm

Thank God, Tuts got someone like Clare as his personal advisor, she seems to have her head screwed on!!!!
clareduncan wrote:Woohoo soapbox opportunity!

The economy is virtually suffering from stagnation, beggar all growth accompanied by cracking inflation. As it has already been said, the BoE's usual method of combating inflation is to use the base rate to reign in spending. However, when we're suffering from stagnant/negative growth the last thing the government should do is reduce spending. Hence the conundrum, high inflation requires reduced spending, growth for recovery requires stimulated spending!

Indeed, companies are unlikely to offer pay rises at the moment as employees have no leverage (back to the supply demand argument), as opposed to the more publicly acceptable argument that they use of 'cut backs must be made' (obviously not true of all companies but some of the larger ones really are taking the mick now)! That being said, the companies which really are struggling seem to get the most stick and opposition from their employees, plunging them further into depravity. For example, the trade unions of BA seem to consider it acceptable to ruin the holidays and Christmases of thousands of hard-working people because their new (not even existing staff) are to receive a salary that is still considerably over and above that of market rates, consequently shredding their companies reputation and forcing the remaining customers, who hadn't already migrated to budget airlines, to run with their tails between their legs.

That doesn't really answer the question of when you can start asking for a pay rise. In my opinion, the government needs to stop spending so much time bitching about the last government and review their current tax system. Yes fuel is an easy tax, yes the government needs a massive amount of tax income to start repaying their horrific deficit, yes fuel is environmentally unfriendly and we should all be getting the bus and yes it is going to run out one day... but boll**ks!!! The massive rise in fuel prices is a huge contributor to the rate of inflation, and the government could be stemming it by adjusting the tax rate. By all means rack up the tax on cigarettes and alcohol, we don't need them to get to work, but taxing us for getting to work and heating our homes is not going to encourage us to spend our way out of a potential double-dip! On the same topic, I'm afraid Campbell's sound advice about outgoings slightly below income isn't an ideal route to recovery either. I think this is the reason that the government seems to allow people to get into massive debt because they want us to spend spend spend! That being said, unless you are insanely altruistic or know you only have a short time to live, I'd stick to Campbell's philosophy!

All in all, companies will only get away with this as long as the majority of people are willing to accept it. My guess is that as the hysteria calms down, the average Joe will have a bit less sympathy for their employer and begin negotiating again!! Here's hoping anyway!

Right rant over! Can you tell I'm the kind of person that throws things at the news!

P.S. You are quite often better off with a fee-based mortgage, the savings are usually considerably more than the fee!
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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by campbell » Wed Feb 02, 2011 9:27 pm

Spot on, mostly.
clareduncan wrote:On the same topic, I'm afraid Campbell's sound advice about outgoings slightly below income isn't an ideal route to recovery either. I think this is the reason that the government seems to allow people to get into massive debt because they want us to spend spend spend! That being said, unless you are insanely altruistic or know you only have a short time to live, I'd stick to Campbell's philosophy!
Fundamentally, if you spend more than you earn (plus what you accrue through investment or recoup through selling your stuff) then you are not going to make ends meet. The credit-awash scenario we have only just escaped from was the root of precisely the opposite of this basic prudence, and plays a large part the current state of affairs. IMHO at least.

So whilst the "politicians" bang on about spending our way out of the recession, at a micro level (that's you or me or the other "person in the street") it is utterly critical that people do not spend more than they earn. By all means create wealth - through investment, risk-taking, whatever...in which case be clear that you can cover the interest payments of loans you take, and as I said above, you have a planned route to cover the debt you are building, in event you can no longer cover the cost of it because your business venture was a poor one and folds.

Oh, and the vision of you throwing things at the News is most entertaining. Join the club :-)
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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by graeme » Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:29 am

Anyone got any solutions then?


It's not the man on the street who needs to earn more than he spends, it's the country as a whole. We don't make or sell anything any more. We're importers of energy and manufactured goods and food. £160bn deficit on our GDP is geared way higher the EU recommendation, and it's only going to get worse.

Why it will never get fixed:

Our wonderful partisan democracy (which we seem to be so proud of that we bomb the sh*t out of other nations until they adopt it) does not allow for long-term decision making, because long term decisions are generally unpopular and painful in the short term. You make painful decisions (which take money out of the pockets of the voters) and you're out on your arse after 4 years. So, to stay in long enough to get anything done, you'd need to make popular short term decisions which would probably have damaging long term effects. Which would cost money and fix nothing. Even if the PM set the ball rolling on the big fixes and accepts that he's only doing one term as PM, the next party wins by promising to undo it all, wasting all the cash the previous party has already spent. That's how Britain rolls. We flip-flop from one side to the other, cancelling each other's projects, finishing nothing and wasting every penny we borrow.

How to fix it:

First of all, re-regulate the investment banking industry. Split investments from the high street. Looks like the FSA might be starting to think about banning a few financial "products" (whoever called them products should be shot - there's no product) which might mean they're starting to grow a pair. Good. So, now the city can't undo all our wealth accumulation overnight, we can safely acquire wealth again, which is very necessary because the only way to build a stronger nation is to have money to build with, which means a constant, unfaltering income with plenty to spare.

So, if we want income we either need to get armed with some flags and go build an empire again (which we'd get away with if it wasn't for those pesky UN kids) or we need to make stuff and sell it overseas like we used to in the good old industrial days.

If we can export more than we import (earn more than we spend), we should stay cash positive. If we're cash positive, we can fix our country with enough to spare for the flip-flopping wasteful overhead of democracy. If we have to spend every penny we make buying food and energy from other nations, those nations will be the ones doing the building, not us. So, lets think about our market. What will the world need a bunch of in the next 100 years? What will it demand that we can supply?

Clean energy would be my answer unless anyone has any better ideas...

So, we need to sell clean energy, which means producing clean fuel. Also, if we had our own supply of energy we could power our own industrial development cheaply. For example, our trains suck. The French have cheap nuclear electrickery, so they have cheap, fast TGVs. OK, that's a rather trite example, but lots of infrastructure and manufacturing costs boil down to the cost (the cost mind, not the price) of a kWh. If we're importing energy, we're a slave to the market price (yeah, that's some bad-ass Stringer Bell sh*t right there, bro). If we're exporting it we're still a slave to the market selling price, but we can still use what we need from our own stash and charge ourselves the actual cost. We're now OPEC-proof and war-proof. We can afford to make products again, and any spare kilowatt-hours can go on ebay or something...

So, we'll take 20 or 30 of your finest government-owned nuclear power plants please! No, we don't let private industry build them, they have to stay publicly owned or we're just as screwed as before.

Now we wait 15 year for those to be built. Hopefully we're not bankrupt by then.

So, now we have fuel. Except, no, wait. We have energy, not fuel. Fuel needs to be transportable and storable. So, what can we use as fuel? Well, we have heat coming out of our reactors, but heat tends to dissipate. Bad fuel. So, the usual steam turbines can make it into electricity for us, right? But then we'd need heavy batteries to store our fuel in, and batteries suck. Bad fuel. Hydrogen? Terrible, terrible fuel. Tends to release its energy prematurely, like while it's still in the tank under the rear seats of your Honda Clarity, just as you're strapping Jasper and Felicity in for the school run...

Nope, it's gotta be liquid at room temperature so we can move it around in tankers and pump it into cars and stuff. High energy density would be nice too. Something we can make without fossil fuels so that's petrol and diesel out.

Ethanol and methanol are the only viable long-term alternatives to petrol/diesel. So lets make 'em. Cleanly. We'll need CO2 scrubbers and some electricity of course. CO2 scrubber technology is coming along very nicely so we'll get in on that sharpish. Start making and developing them ourselves. The better they get, the cleaner (more carbon-neutral) our fuels will be. We can use our lovely nuclear electricity which we can buy from ourselves at cost. Great, now we can make really, really cheap, clean liquid fuels. Now, lets get our factories churning out fuel cells for all those who don't want to burn our new fuels in an internal combustion engine. More patents, more exports, more UK manufacturing.

So, 20 years from now if the UK doesn't supply the world with clean liquid fuels (except China who will still be burning coal and Tibetans) we've only ourselves to blame. Sure, anyone could make their own fuels, but only anyone with a surplus of cheap electricity and all the CO2 scrubber technology and the production facilities in place. Which is why we really, really, really, need to get the ball rolling with a few dozen nuclear power plants on the drawing board. Now!

Odds of it happening? Zero, because it will cost money with no short-term return, and worse, any government which signs the deal to build them will be met with greeny, nimby protests and will be voted out in 4 years and the plans will get scrapped.

The French will do it instead.
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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by max1966 » Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:55 am

Spot on Graeme, we will need electricity for everything in the future, not building nuclear plants is suicide and sadly the decision will be unpopular so no-one will make it.

The commitment, due to construction and commissioning time, should have been made a decade ago.
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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by pete » Thu Feb 03, 2011 1:04 pm

Well put that man.

Wholeheartedly agree with you about nuclear. So well put you actually changed my view slightly. I'll take your word for those things about which I know nothing (methanl etc) but all sounds great.

A lot of observers, and I fear some of those are politicians who should know better, seem to make mistakes thinking "if my family was short of money we shouyld spend less, therefore when the country is short of money we should spend less."

But it's not the same, for starters the deficit has not (AFAIK) come about because we are spending more than we earn, so much as because we are earning less than we spend. That's an important difference.
If you lost your job (says he falling into the same trap himself) you may think "Right dear we need to shop at Aldis instead of Waitrose for a bit,"
but that wouldn't fix your problems. Your first priority would be to get another job!!

So the country needs growth more than cuts, the private sector cannot fuel this growth as the bank aren't lending money. And growing a business using cash is rare and slow.
Consumers can't grow the economy as unemployment is rising and their ability to borrow money (against the predicted rise in future house prices) is vastly diminished.

Which leaves the public sector. They can borrow money or HMG can print money. Yes they have to be careful, aviod white elephants but borrowing to build reactors is fcuk inspired. (Once again qv JM Keynes.)

We get tech, we get a skilled workforce, we get a richer country.

But the politics kick in, the Right are ideologically opposed to public ownership, and make no mistake Osborne and co are very, terrifyingly, right-wing. I fear they are making Thatcher look like a kindly old matriarch.

We need a proper centre party who will not be afraid to use the private sector where they are better (short term) but are not against public ownership...

I propose a revolution, Graeme can be in charge. Anyone fancy coming to London tomorrow and we'll kick it off???

(Incidentally the boom-bust is not just down to the parliamentary system. This video is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk awesome. I am such a geek. :oops: :oops:)

But what I wanted was a right winger to explain the current plan as well as g explained his plan. Still waiting...

(Worryingly a mate in work read something that the UK's current economic plan, massive cuts in a deep recession, was a novel experiment. First time tried. Very brave. Scary huh? Clare, my TV has a perspex sheet in front of it to protect it from the missiles I throw.)





graeme wrote:Anyone got any solutions then?


It's not the man on the street who needs to earn more than he spends, it's the country as a whole. We don't make or sell anything any more. We're importers of energy and manufactured goods and food. £160bn deficit on our GDP is geared way higher the EU recommendation, and it's only going to get worse.

Why it will never get fixed:

Our wonderful partisan democracy (which we seem to be so proud of that we bomb the sh*t out of other nations until they adopt it) does not allow for long-term decision making, because long term decisions are generally unpopular and painful in the short term. You make painful decisions (which take money out of the pockets of the voters) and you're out on your arse after 4 years. So, to stay in long enough to get anything done, you'd need to make popular short term decisions which would probably have damaging long term effects. Which would cost money and fix nothing. Even if the PM set the ball rolling on the big fixes and accepts that he's only doing one term as PM, the next party wins by promising to undo it all, wasting all the cash the previous party has already spent. That's how Britain rolls. We flip-flop from one side to the other, cancelling each other's projects, finishing nothing and wasting every penny we borrow.

How to fix it:

First of all, re-regulate the investment banking industry. Split investments from the high street. Looks like the FSA might be starting to think about banning a few financial "products" (whoever called them products should be shot - there's no product) which might mean they're starting to grow a pair. Good. So, now the city can't undo all our wealth accumulation overnight, we can safely acquire wealth again, which is very necessary because the only way to build a stronger nation is to have money to build with, which means a constant, unfaltering income with plenty to spare.

So, if we want income we either need to get armed with some flags and go build an empire again (which we'd get away with if it wasn't for those pesky UN kids) or we need to make stuff and sell it overseas like we used to in the good old industrial days.

If we can export more than we import (earn more than we spend), we should stay cash positive. If we're cash positive, we can fix our country with enough to spare for the flip-flopping wasteful overhead of democracy. If we have to spend every penny we make buying food and energy from other nations, those nations will be the ones doing the building, not us. So, lets think about our market. What will the world need a bunch of in the next 100 years? What will it demand that we can supply?

Clean energy would be my answer unless anyone has any better ideas...

So, we need to sell clean energy, which means producing clean fuel. Also, if we had our own supply of energy we could power our own industrial development cheaply. For example, our trains suck. The French have cheap nuclear electrickery, so they have cheap, fast TGVs. OK, that's a rather trite example, but lots of infrastructure and manufacturing costs boil down to the cost (the cost mind, not the price) of a kWh. If we're importing energy, we're a slave to the market price (yeah, that's some bad-ass Stringer Bell sh*t right there, bro). If we're exporting it we're still a slave to the market selling price, but we can still use what we need from our own stash and charge ourselves the actual cost. We're now OPEC-proof and war-proof. We can afford to make products again, and any spare kilowatt-hours can go on ebay or something...

So, we'll take 20 or 30 of your finest government-owned nuclear power plants please! No, we don't let private industry build them, they have to stay publicly owned or we're just as screwed as before.

Now we wait 15 year for those to be built. Hopefully we're not bankrupt by then.

So, now we have fuel. Except, no, wait. We have energy, not fuel. Fuel needs to be transportable and storable. So, what can we use as fuel? Well, we have heat coming out of our reactors, but heat tends to dissipate. Bad fuel. So, the usual steam turbines can make it into electricity for us, right? But then we'd need heavy batteries to store our fuel in, and batteries suck. Bad fuel. Hydrogen? Terrible, terrible fuel. Tends to release its energy prematurely, like while it's still in the tank under the rear seats of your Honda Clarity, just as you're strapping Jasper and Felicity in for the school run...

Nope, it's gotta be liquid at room temperature so we can move it around in tankers and pump it into cars and stuff. High energy density would be nice too. Something we can make without fossil fuels so that's petrol and diesel out.

Ethanol and methanol are the only viable long-term alternatives to petrol/diesel. So lets make 'em. Cleanly. We'll need CO2 scrubbers and some electricity of course. CO2 scrubber technology is coming along very nicely so we'll get in on that sharpish. Start making and developing them ourselves. The better they get, the cleaner (more carbon-neutral) our fuels will be. We can use our lovely nuclear electricity which we can buy from ourselves at cost. Great, now we can make really, really cheap, clean liquid fuels. Now, lets get our factories churning out fuel cells for all those who don't want to burn our new fuels in an internal combustion engine. More patents, more exports, more UK manufacturing.

So, 20 years from now if the UK doesn't supply the world with clean liquid fuels (except China who will still be burning coal and Tibetans) we've only ourselves to blame. Sure, anyone could make their own fuels, but only anyone with a surplus of cheap electricity and all the CO2 scrubber technology and the production facilities in place. Which is why we really, really, really, need to get the ball rolling with a few dozen nuclear power plants on the drawing board. Now!

Odds of it happening? Zero, because it will cost money with no short-term return, and worse, any government which signs the deal to build them will be met with greeny, nimby protests and will be voted out in 4 years and the plans will get scrapped.

The French will do it instead.
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Re: About The Economy? (FALC)

Post by BigD » Thu Feb 03, 2011 1:18 pm

Is the problem with methanol/ethanol not the fact that we need crops to make/distill it? (I'm not sure what the scrubbers do?!) And the fact that food is already the fastest increasing price problem that we have at the moment. There's been food protests in Bangladesh I believe, and other emerging economies will start to follow. The food prices in these parts is increasing at an alarming rate. They spend more than half their wage on food. :shock:

If you add in disasters which have wiped out crops and then add a demand for fuel from it also, the price then goes through the roof.

We could start by making ourselfs (The UK) self sufficient and not so reliant on imports as Greame said. That includes food. :D

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