Is this possible?

[thinfourth]

Funny thing... SNP seem to have gone quiet with all their "we are rich with oil money " chat.

but according to some polls are going to take 90% of the seats in holyrood in May

Is scotland that moronic?

[Sanjøy]

Funny thing... SNP seem to have gone quiet with all their "we are rich with oil money " chat.

but according to some polls are going to take 90% of the seats in holyrood in May

Is scotland that moronic?

No they simply have no other option. Generations will never vote Tory due to their family's affected by Thatcher, the new Labour man was/is and IRA sympathiser so rules out 50% of scotland voting for him leaving Nicola and David are laughing.

[thinfourth]

i rather shove the ballot paper up my arse then vote SNP

Though looking at the rest of them

Shoving it up my arse would be as useful

[111Robin]

Utter BS. I've been out of work 6 months now and no sign of getting back to what I've done for the past 26 years so perhaps it's time to get out of Aberdeen and start anew. Can't even get a "fill in" job as I'm either too highly qualified or its too obvious I don't really want a career delivering groceries so don't even get a look in. Had to laugh, when I was laid off as part of the cost cutting exercise they were spending money having Lego models of our subsea trees made and having engineers build them !!. Muppets the lot of them.

Masterflo chokes are looking for a subsea sales guy

Still looking at CVs

Some of which are engineers

Drop them a CV i am sure you can find the job in linkedin

Thanks, I've seen that position before. I'll hold out for another while, looking for engineering roles, sales isn't really my kind of thing. Perhaps that will need to change if things don't pick up.

[111Robin]

Utter BS. I've been out of work 6 months now and no sign of getting back to what I've done for the past 26 years so perhaps it's time to get out of Aberdeen and start anew. Can't even get a "fill in" job as I'm either too highly qualified or its too obvious I don't really want a career delivering groceries so don't even get a look in. Had to laugh, when I was laid off as part of the cost cutting exercise they were spending money having Lego models of our subsea trees made and having engineers build them !!. Muppets the lot of them.

Sorry to hear that, apologies if my post was insensitive.

S

Not at all, its just I'm feeling a bit negative with the year just starting and no real prospects ahead.

[BiggestNizzy]

I have noticed a small improvement in sub-con manufacturing for oil and gas. As for as I can tell things are planned for $40 a barrel and that would be fine. Unfortunately we are not even reaching that.

[Mikie711]

What Craig was talking about is this:

Existing wells be produced with a given output will over time natural deplete and their production rates will drop. This is natural and all wells experience this. You can extend the life through water injection, subsea pumps fracking etc but that all costs money. Further, if you are not conducting exploration and find new reserves to replace the oil being produced then you create a hole in the oil supply chain.
Now currently oil production outstrips demand, hence the large stock piled reserves around the word, tanker lying in bays full and nowhere to offload it to. But through the natural slow down of production rates, lack of investment in these existing wells couple with no exploration work being done then supply will lag behind demand. When that happens then the glut of oil will start to reduce.
It takes 2-3 years to gear up and deliver a new well and the affect of the current lack of spending will not start to show in the market until 2017 and that hole won't be filled for at least another couple of years after that.
Couple of other points to ponder, the Saudis that started this over production capper are starting to feel the pressure. For the first time they have a budget deficit and it's a big one, $98 billion. They are about to cut the subsidy on petrol at home along with other benefits that the Saudis population take for granted, so they will start to come under more pressure from within their own country and they are still fighting an increasingly expensive war.

The fly in the ointment id the US frackers. Those wells can be restarted very quickly so any slack in the oil supply chain could be filled by them and they are working very hard at reducing their in ground costs for oil making it viable at a lower barrel price.

In short 2016 is looking bleak and the $20 a barrel price we all laughed at is looking more likely. But unlike any other slump there is a lot more at play than just over supply this time round and as such I doubt anyone knows what is going to happen or when.

[campbell]

Aberdeen as a centre of excellence could have been diversifying hard into the renewables space 10-15 years ago. Back then, it would have been seen as crazy or pioneering. Today it would be saving jobs and leading the world again.

And appreciate the insider analysis Mike. Beats the bloody media any day.

[robin]

I guess it depends on what you read

The Saudis are (alleged to be) trying to drive other producers out of business (in particular the US frackers) which is why they are "happy" to continue producing oil regardless of economic viability knowing that eventually they will win (though I am not sure winning is actually winning, if you know what I mean!). They may also diversify their economy to make it less dependent on oil, but it might be tricky as the whole society has been used to money-for-nothing for a long time.

They have substantial reserves - even at the current rate of budget deficit they'll be OK for a few years to come - so maybe enough time to re-adjust their economy to work long term at whatever the price per barrel should really settle down at.

It's hard to see how the more expensive production (e.g. anything that requires new investment) will come online anytime soon in this climate - it depends on what price the whole thing settles down at; the difference this time is that the frackers can fill any supply gaps more easily than the North Sea can, and even if the Saudis manage to force them to stop production, I'll bet that they'll start again as soon as the price goes up and thus the price will stabilise below the point where new wells are viable.

Cheers,
Robin

P.S. Makes you wonder whether the mass executions at the start of this year weren't based on anticipation of trouble ahead - remind the public that they can give with one hand and chop your head off with the other.

[pete]

So we should invade Saudi?

[Sanjøy]

So we should invade Saudi?

No they own the UK debts with the Chinese and would be required to fund said invasion.

[robin]

So we should invade Saudi?

It's a good way to distract from the economic disasters that are looming - even Mr Osborne is gloomy - though perhaps that's because he's run out of things to sell (water, anybody?).

Cheers,
Robin

[j2 lot]

An interesting insight Mike.

[Mikie711]

I guess it depends on what you read

The Saudis are (alleged to be) trying to drive other producers out of business (in particular the US frackers) which is why they are "happy" to continue producing oil regardless of economic viability knowing that eventually they will win (though I am not sure winning is actually winning, if you know what I mean!). They may also diversify their economy to make it less dependent on oil, but it might be tricky as the whole society has been used to money-for-nothing for a long time.

They have substantial reserves - even at the current rate of budget deficit they'll be OK for a few years to come - so maybe enough time to re-adjust their economy to work long term at whatever the price per barrel should really settle down at.

It's hard to see how the more expensive production (e.g. anything that requires new investment) will come online anytime soon in this climate - it depends on what price the whole thing settles down at; the difference this time is that the frackers can fill any supply gaps more easily than the North Sea can, and even if the Saudis manage to force them to stop production, I'll bet that they'll start again as soon as the price goes up and thus the price will stabilise below the point where new wells are viable.

Cheers,
Robin

P.S. Makes you wonder whether the mass executions at the start of this year weren't based on anticipation of trouble ahead - remind the public that they can give with one hand and chop your head off with the other.

When they started to to drive the price down word was they could keep it up for about 2-3 years before running out of cash. As the price of oil decreases then their deficit will increase and AFAIK they only have oil as an export. Interesting times ahead but with an increasingly volatile middle east who knows what will happen in the medium to long term.

[robin]

True, but by the same token the lower the price goes the harder it is hitting the rest of the world so maybe 2-3 years is enough?. Right now would be a great time to run a business that needed a lot of oil