Independence SE Poll

[PhilA]

my house is on the market just now.
had 7 people view it.
kinda hope I get a good offer before the 18th...

its ballsing up my plan at the moment.

the people I see voting yes arnt moving/ dont have big mortgages/ live in council/ have two incomes/ dont care
the people ive spoken to who see the figures and talk about the things we have talked about - they are voting No.

I feel sad already.
The Scotland I love is vanishing, and some real hardship is coming - so frustrating when it doesnt need to be like that.
I actually, selfishly, hope I win the lotto and can watch the Yes voters faces when my worse indyref fears come true.
But that wont happen (the lotto).
I really dont want to move down south, I love Scotland.

When Salmond says "people of Scotland are winning" - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29099875?SThisFB
Makes. me. so. angry.
Sense when was I not a person of Scotland.
Divide and Conquer.

[campbell]

This may sound over-reactionary, but is there any practical steps that can be taken to mitigate the potential negative effects in the result of a yes vote?

I.e. I was looking to renew my mortgage in the near future - should this make any difference in the short term?

I don't have any loans / credit etc. I guess perhaps if considering property investment, avoid Scotland for a couple years (or more) until this is partially resolved..

Worrying times ahead should Scotland leave take leave of its senses and vote for this...

Interest rates will rise.

Doing business with the rest of the UK may become harder.

So whatever mitigations you can make (that's about reducing the impact of the unwanted situation by assuming it WILL happen), or contingencies you can plan (that's about planning steps to take after the unwanted situation HAS happened), make great sense. Straight out of Project Management for Dummies

Then you sit back and enjoy the count - STV are on air all night, assume BBC will do the same. I know which channel I'd rather watch too...

http://news.stv.tv/scotland/290750-stv- ... -coverage/

[Corranga]

This is probably my main concern. I'm in a fixed rate deal at the moment, but only 2 years. We all know interest rates will go up, but iScotland will enhance this substantially and if they had towards double figures I'm probably out on the street!

[campbell]

Take heart - rates will not escalate overnight. So you have time to plan / adapt. Why not assume they'll go up a quarter percent every 6 months from next spring, adapt your existing monthly budgeting to set aside that amount as a provision (Accounting term), then every six months you have built the cover for a quarter percent rise for a six month period. This also helps you adapt to the new lower disposable income you will have. Then you get a stay of execution.

Thinking on it, though, even a doubling of the effective borrowing rate may not be the driving impact upon disposable incomes post-independence. If like us you devote much more each month to food shopping, fuel, energy suppliers, and other near-essentials, the marginal changes on mortgage rates may become the least of one's concerns.

[campbell]

Succinct piece on BBC news site, relating to the Transition Costs of what lies ahead...

...whatever the long term prospects for Scotland and the rest of the UK, both could pay a steep and immediate economic price, during the months and probably years it will take to firmly determine the distribution of assets north and south (and I haven't even got on to the further complications of determining how liabilities, such as the national debt , are shared).

Full article here.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29103437

[pete]

So a quick question for all you No voters...

There is a "purdah" in force (which is my new word for the day) which if I understand it correctly says the govt won't initiate any new policies in the period between the campaign starting and the election, that m,ay influence hte outcome.

Yet yesterday Osborne goes on TV and says "Vote No and we'll give you more powers!"

Did I misunderstand it?

[David]

I don't think it is a new policy as such - just a time table and a bit of flesh to what had already been promised.

What's more interesting is that this poll has rattled the government as much as it has - maybe they have just woken up to the fact that the biggest threat to the integrity of the UK might be on their doorstep, and not thousands of mile away in the Middle East.

[renmure]

So a quick question for all you No voters...

There is a "purdah" in force (which is my new word for the day) which if I understand it correctly says the govt won't initiate any new policies in the period between the campaign starting and the election, that m,ay influence hte outcome.

Yet yesterday Osborne goes on TV and says "Vote No and we'll give you more powers!"

Did I misunderstand it?

Naw.. My lot are panicking a wee bit

Unfortunately it shows politics up for the sham it really is sometimes since he can get away with announcing "new powers" because they are not really "new" at all and have already been announced.

[tut]

I presume that the Union Jack Flag will have to be re-designed, with the Saltire part taken out.

tut

[Rosssco]

I don't think it is a new policy as such - just a time table and a bit of flesh to what had already been promised.

Thats right. They cannot announce more new powers (missed the boat on that one) at this stage. This is just saying "here's a detailed list of new power and you can have them straight away".

Of course, it would be the sensible course of action to take the new power and see how they work out. If they truly are insufficient (which I guess it won't be for SNP perma-whingers) then we reassess..

Unfortunately we now live (or many people of my generation do) in a world where the idea of compromise is frowned upon, where we want everything now (and if we can't have, why not?!?!) and basic concepts of security, soverignty, education and provision of basic health and social policies (which previous generations fought and died for) are insufficient..

[pete]

I don't think it is a new policy as such - just a time table and a bit of flesh to what had already been promised.

Hmm. He says "you will see over the next few days a plan to give more tax powers, more spending powers and more powers over the welfare state."

This new (sorry, existing) plan will be announced in the next few days and, Osborn believes, this is what the Scotch want. Although not what the Scotch wanted when Cameron refused to put DevoMax on the referendum.

[BigD]

I don't think it is a new policy as such - just a time table and a bit of flesh to what had already been promised.

Hmm. He says "you will see over the next few days a plan to give more tax powers, more spending powers and more powers over the welfare state."

This new (sorry, existing) plan will be announced in the next few days and, Osborn believes, this is what the Scotch want. Although not what the Scotch wanted when Cameron refused to put DevoMax on the referendum.

It's a bit disappointing that they are only coming out with this now, as if they have not been taking it seriously until now and panicking a bit. Makes me wonder why they want the union so much (must be something in it for them) and also makes me think I should change my mind.

Didn't think that would happen but I was encouraged by the fact that the Scottish Parliament has at least some Tory and Lib Dem MP's represented currently.

The no campaign have not done well at all, they have said nothing positive about keeping the Union that I have heard and seems it's all scaremongering. Todays point from Ed Milliband of looking at putting up border control is just ridiculous.

This can't be doing the Labour party in Scotland any good whatsoever, which is nice!

[neil]

The no campaign have not done well at all, they have said nothing positive about keeping the Union that I have heard and seems it's all scaremongering. Todays point from Ed Milliband of looking at putting up border control is just ridiculous.

That was actually Saturdays point
Todays is "everyones going to have their house repossessed when interest rates go through the roof."
I'm just surprised they haven't predicted the sky falling in yet

[Fluoxetine]

I'm unsure of the percentage of postal votes already submitted - but seems crazy to be offering the moon on a stick (details of what exactly that entails to follow after the 18th ) at this stage of the game, when some votes have already been cast.

I think there's been an arrogance in Westminster that the Scots wouldn't be mad / brave / stupid enough to vote yes - And now that panic stations have kicked in since Friday, I wonder if it's too little / too late.

I live in Ireland (the ROI bit), but work over here and have the majority of my financial affairs based here (pension etc).

I don't really have a say in the matters, but either outcome will affect me.

Personally I think if we do go the indy route, it'll be 5 - 10 years of some degree of pain, then things will settle and the Scottish economy will probably be stronger & more stimulated than had it remained in the union.

All just depends on the level of this 'pain', as to whether it's all worth it, and that's the great unknown.

I'll be watching from Eire next Thursday, with great interest...

[Corranga]

Take heart - rates will not escalate overnight. So you have time to plan / adapt. Why not assume they'll go up a quarter percent every 6 months from next spring, adapt your existing monthly budgeting to set aside that amount as a provision (Accounting term), then every six months you have built the cover for a quarter percent rise for a six month period. This also helps you adapt to the new lower disposable income you will have. Then you get a stay of execution.

Thinking on it, though, even a doubling of the effective borrowing rate may not be the driving impact upon disposable incomes post-independence. If like us you devote much more each month to food shopping, fuel, energy suppliers, and other near-essentials, the marginal changes on mortgage rates may become the least of one's concerns.

That's my current modus operandi, I guess it's a combination of everything, a big house and mortgage, only 3 years into it, having a 7 month old now, and Erica talking about working less and so reducing her wages... We're unfortunately in a situation where mortgage payments at best match, most probably exceed everything else combined, but then, no other loans for cars etc. I'm sure it'll be fine

The no campaign have not done well at all, they have said nothing positive about keeping the Union that I have heard and seems it's all scaremongering.

As a pessimist I find this point really interesting.

The Yes campaign have said nothing at all about what will happen, just lots about what they plan to negotiate, and attempt to implement, with little to no details on how, or where it'll be funded from (at least beyond oil fund and changing the national gum to Wrigleys rather than Trident).

The No campaign talk about things that actually could happen, and in most cases would happen if left alone, but this is scaremongering.

The Yes campaign then talk about how staying in the union will mean that Scotland is further oppressed by Westminster who will suck Scotland dry to build new railways and pay all those armed forces we have, but apparently this isn't scaremongering.

Although not what the Scotch wanted when Cameron refused to put DevoMax on the referendum.

As I believe it, this was part of a negotiation between the SNP / Salmond on what the referendum would be about. The removal of devomax was agreed upon because it simply muddies the waters.
A majority voting devomax (which I strongly believe would be the outcome) simply asks do Scotland really want independence?
The biggest issue is that it's no longer an independence referendum.

Does Salmond ever talk about devomax being removed from the ballot?