Scottish Elises

How will you vote in Indy Ref 2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Z0QUygjr2w


Edit to say, I thought this fitted nicely in here. My views don't necessarily parallel Jim Trott's

I've yet to listen to all the pish and decide...

mwmackenzie wrote:I've yet to listen to all the pish and decide...

If we learnt anything from 2014 it's that listening to all the pish puts you exactly where you are today in terms of knowledge

We don't yet know what the question will be.

I would like it to read "Do you want Scotland to remain a part of the United Kingdom?"

In the spirit of balance and fairness and all that.

I worry what this will do to the mood in Scotland (Nicola referendum not McKeanns poll ) and indeed the U.K.
I am against Independence but I understand others support for it ( although they are wrong ) but what I cannot comprehend is 'Independence' that then needs to be part of a bigger and arguably failing/ faltering organisation.

campbell wrote:We don't yet know what the question will be.

I would like it to read "Do you want Scotland to remain a part of the United Kingdom?"

In the spirit of balance and fairness and all that.

There should be another referendum too :
In the event of Scotland being Independent do you want it to become a member state of the EU ?

I think the mood between the non brain dead is that the "Once in a lifetime Referendum" had a very short lifetime span.

tut

I haven't changed but I do know 3 people who have (from no to yes), and 2 of them were very anti-independence the last time around rather than being sat on the fence. Both are Phd level educated individuals in highly paid professional jobs - make of that what you will. In the last couple of years we have had the tories win an overall majority, the brexit vote and Trump being elected, all completely against all polling and the prediction of bookies and political pundits alike, so I wouldn't want to try and predict the outcome of indyref2. Uncertain times ahead for sure!

Given the state of the country in general what is needed is stability. We need to sort our own house so not opposed to leaving the EU which IMO is a dead horse anyway. But, until all the dust has settled surrounding Brexit the UK needs to remain intact.
Maybe then, if things haven't changed then look at another referendum, not bang in the middle of all the political turmoil.
Poor timing and bad politics again IMHO.

campbell wrote:We don't yet know what the question will be.

I would like it to read "Do you want Scotland to remain a part of the United Kingdom?"

In the spirit of balance and fairness and all that.

The most sensible and considered post I've read anywhere so far on this subject. Thanks Campbell and I agree with you.

ryallm wrote:I haven't changed but I do know 3 people who have (from no to yes), and 2 of them were very anti-independence the last time around rather than being sat on the fence. Both are Phd level educated individuals in highly paid professional jobs - make of that what you will. In the last couple of years we have had the tories win an overall majority, the brexit vote and Trump being elected, all completely against all polling and the prediction of bookies and political pundits alike, so I wouldn't want to try and predict the outcome of indyref2. Uncertain times ahead for sure!

Interested to head what has swayed them. What has changed? UK leaving the EU? Scotland still has no answer on if and when it could join as an indy and it is now a much weker EU than before and will not be getting stronger once the UK leave.

My view hasn't changed as the SNP have still to answer all of the questions from last time which is biggest tragedy.

Mikie711 wrote:Given the state of the country in general what is needed is stability. We need to sort our own house so not opposed to leaving the EU which IMO is a dead horse anyway. But, until all the dust has settled surrounding Brexit the UK needs to remain intact.
Maybe then, if things haven't changed then look at another referendum, not bang in the middle of all the political turmoil.
Poor timing and bad politics again IMHO.

Completely agree. This is simply the SNP angling for more votes through the turmoil. They already angled for the teenagers last time, and I'm sure there will be some other stunt pulled this time if they can carry it off. Last time around, the No campaign was referred to as 'Project Fear' by a lot of Yes supporters. It seems this time that fear (of Tories and not being in the EU, and, basically of not knowing the future) is a driving force for independence.

c8rkh wrote:

campbell wrote:We don't yet know what the question will be.

I would like it to read "Do you want Scotland to remain a part of the United Kingdom?"

In the spirit of balance and fairness and all that.

The most sensible and considered post I've read anywhere so far on this subject. Thanks Campbell and I agree with you.

I agree too. First time around I questioned how they were even allowed to have a yes / no question as there is clearly a bias towards positive with one of the answers. I sincerely doubt that even America's politics (for example) would have allowed such a leading question to be asked.

Sanjoy wrote:My view hasn't changed as the SNP have still to answer all of the questions from last time which is biggest tragedy.

This is exactly where I stand too. Questions needed answering last time, and the SNP did very little i the way of guaranteeing (or perhaps even researching!) the answers they wee giving!

Overall, I don't like what the Tories are doing in the UK right now, and I don't think anyone else will be getting in in the next general election, but I don't think the SNP are doing a particularly fantastic job at running Scotland now (or in the past few years) either. They have divided the country when supposedly trying to promote unity, and are going to further divide the country again this time around. It reeks of not getting your own way so asking again. My 3 year old asks Daddy when Mummy said no.

If Scotland needs independence, then Scotland will respond with a proper majority of it's citizens voting for it. I can't see more than a few percent swing either way this time around either. I hate what the country that I love most is about to become, all over again

I'm disappointed that this is happening and can't see any good coming of it. At all.

But I've got a theory that Sturgeon didn't really have a choice, or to put it another way this is Cameron's fault. And Miliband, it's his fault too.

Pete's Unasked For Theory of Indy2

So, in order to get elected, the tragically weak "leader" that is David Cameron (boy is history going to judge him poorly, he's almost Shakespearean) promises a referendum on Brexit - something he doesn't want to appease a small but influential rabid wight wing. He doesn't, as he could have done, make it a full majority, or 2/3s of the voters. Nope, driven presumably by vanity it's just a straight majority and he loses. So he's out.

But what of Labour?
Well Scottish Labour shot themselves in the head by allowing themselves to be the mouthpiece for the mother of all negative campaigns in Indy1, and a mouthpiece for the Tories at that, in an region/country where there is a strong social antipathy to the Tories. In doing so they lost a large part of their natural supporters.
I mean what did they think was going to happen? Scottish Tories reliably poll at 20% (give or take) so that's the hard core Tory until they die types. They don't think before they vote, they just tick Tory. Did Labour think they might attract some of them?
Did they f.ck, they just took their membership so much for granted that they thought they could do anything, completely missing the fact the the world had changed and there were loads of folk in yellow banging on doors...
They burnt all their historical support to defend the union, and defended it making Tory promises!
The Tories must have been pissing themselves.

As for English Labour, well the idiot Miliband started giving Labour membership away for pennies and he got keyboard warriors joining. Not campaigners, not monied backers, but idiots. Or worse, idealists who won't leave their bedrooms. So Labour have no-one to knock on doors, but they have members willing to elect Corbyn.
Corbyn. Possibly the only politician in recent times who can make Cameron look competent. (OK Miliband and whoever was leading SLAB during Indy1. Can't even be arsed to look it up).

So where does that leave Scotland, well arguably with two of the more competent leaders currently in British politics in Sturgeon and Davidson. And one of the weakest in Dugdale. Ye gods you only have to look at Kezia to appreciate the post-apocalyptic wasteland that is SLAB.

But Sturgeon has a problem, she has a core of her members who are certifiably bat sh1t crazy. Just as crazy as May's right wing, but there are more of them in the party. She can't stall their incessant, crazed, bleating for neverendums to actually DO anything because May keeps pulling the rug out from under her! Promises made in Indyref1 weren't kept, and now we are leaving the EU and there's nothing Scotland can do about it.
Nothing.
And May's not giving her ANYTHING that Sturgeon can use politically to forestall it. Now that's not May's fault either, she didn't want this mess and there's nothing in the playbook to help.
If May gives Scotland too much she annoys her English MPs, loses her own support and potentially jeopardises the union when a strong, successful Scotland will start bitching for indy2.
If May doesn't give Scotland anything, and treats them like an opposition MP rather than a First Minister of a country which is part of the Union, she risks them rebelling and calling for Indy2.
She's gone with option 2 and bluffed someone who has nowhere else to go.

So this is where we are. A bizzare situation where the UK government - which has no strength, and no plan for anything beyond tomorrow, is having to bring in a set of policies which it doesn't believe in to further an end it fears. They can only do what ever they want because there is an utter vacuum in Westminster where the opposition is supposed to sit.

Sturgeon has made requests and they've been ignored, she's asked to be part of the process and has been rebutted, she played her only card, the threat of Indy2, and had her bluff called.

So she had to play her hand. The Indy2 zealots are so deep in their bubble they won't even consider they won't win, but whilst that might not be enough to get them independence they definitely have enough power to oust Sturgeon from the party.

And they might win, no-one knows what Bexit will look like and this time their opposition, the "British Establishment", is going to be fighting on a different, bigger front.

In 2 years the UK economy might tank, add in (say) the pound at parity or worse with the Euro and a strong Oil price and they won't just win, they might win convincingly.


So go on, where am I wrong?

As a theory it's as credible as any I have read elsewhere.
Though I don't support independence this time round I do have a real fear I may end up on the loosing side again.