Has anybody changed their vote about independence??

[BiggestNizzy]

I always like to think about these things by fast forwarding myself 3 years into the future where everything. Has either gone to sh*t.

So Scotland stays and brexit goes to sh*t, what will life be like in Scotland?
Or Scotland leaves and independence goes to sh*t, what will life be like in Scotland?

[Scuffers]

I always like to think about these things by fast forwarding myself 3 years into the future where everything. Has either gone to sh*t.

So Scotland stays and brexit goes to sh*t, what will life be like in Scotland?
Or Scotland leaves and independence goes to sh*t, what will life be like in Scotland?

even if you're right, and Brexit is uncomfortable for the UK, it's nothing compared to what will happen to Scotland if it cuts itself loose...

The best analogy I can come up with is to imagine Scotland as a low income person on tax credits, currently making do reasonably well, only after independence, the tax credits stop....

[campbell]

I think I share that fear, Simon. Such a bloody shame.

[j2 lot]

2 of my Facebook friends ( who both know me but not each other) got into a heated argument about Independence and in particular Police Scotland. The indie supporters argument while admitting that it was a bit of a shambles just now was that ' it needed a bit of time to sort itself out' and 'would work out better in the long run' That sadly seems to be the level of the Independence argument on many many things - it will sort itself out and it wil be better because we're free from Westminster ( bizarrely they're OK with Brussels though )

[BiggestNizzy]

The point of my questions. Was not to push independence. If brexit or turns out great then everyone will be happy and all the doomsayers will disappear and be forgotten about. We are going to go down a stay with brexit or we leave and become independent. But we have to plan for the worst in all situations. I told you so does not pay the mortgage.

I don't know where you got the information to suggest that Scotland was on the social. More or less crunched the numbers the last time and and came to the conclusion that some years Scotland was up, some it was down. The almost 1 trillion debt the uk has suggests it's the UK that's skint.

[David]

I’ve been reading this thread but had decided to keep my own views to myself. But last night, a trip home in a taxi gave a perspective I thought was worth sharing.

The taxi driver was an Islamic immigrant. He was well-educated and friendly chap and our conversation drifted to the world’s problems. It became clear he had been a refugee and spent many years in Europe before making his way to settle in Scotland. I ask why he had chosen Scotland, ‘’because it is paradise’’. Now in the Islamic context, that has several connotations, to say nothing of Billy Connolly jokes, but I hid my bigoted reaction and asked him why he thought that. ‘’Everyone is rich, even the poor are rich . . . they have Police who look after them, hospitals for when they are sick, and safe places to live . . . not many countries like Scotland’’

After what felt like a rather profound lecture on how lucky I was, I asked him about what he thought of indi ref 2. His replay was ‘’Nationalism is evil, it will end in a bad place’’

[c8rkh]

The point of my questions. Was not to push independence. If brexit or turns out great then everyone will be happy and all the doomsayers will disappear and be forgotten about. We are going to go down a stay with brexit or we leave and become independent. But we have to plan for the worst in all situations. I told you so does not pay the mortgage.

I don't know where you got the information to suggest that Scotland was on the social. More or less crunched the numbers the last time and and came to the conclusion that some years Scotland was up, some it was down. The almost 1 trillion debt the uk has suggests it's the UK that's skint.

So as Scotland is part of the UK that means we're not skint? Or, are we skint because we have contributed to that debt? And of course having three big foolish banks HQ'd here that went tits up has helped? Or did that contribute to the debt? Did their irresponsible lending policies only affect the UK and not Scotland, or, is Scotland sharing the responsibility? Sometimes, I do get confused when reading some posts.

[Mikie711]

The point of my questions. Was not to push independence. If brexit or turns out great then everyone will be happy and all the doomsayers will disappear and be forgotten about. We are going to go down a stay with brexit or we leave and become independent. But we have to plan for the worst in all situations. I told you so does not pay the mortgage.

I don't know where you got the information to suggest that Scotland was on the social. More or less crunched the numbers the last time and and came to the conclusion that some years Scotland was up, some it was down. The almost 1 trillion debt the uk has suggests it's the UK that's skint.

So as Scotland is part of the UK that means we're not skint? Or, are we skint because we have contributed to that debt? And of course having three big foolish banks HQ'd here that went tits up has helped? Or did that contribute to the debt? Did their irresponsible lending policies only affect the UK and not Scotland, or, is Scotland sharing the responsibility? Sometimes, I do get confused when reading some posts.

The UK government made an awful lot of money bailing out the banks. Ok the had to stump up the cash in the first place but they made a very tidy return on their investment and haven't finished yet. They still own 5.25% of Lloyds, not sure how much of RBS they still have. And Brown worked a flanker for Lloyds to acquire HBOS by lending them the money and then bailing Lloyds out.
As for the national debt, as a country we're probably broke but less broke than some and more broke than others. At the end of the day who the fukc knows what it all means. But it is a mighty big number that is still climbing.

[c8rkh]

From the national audit office website. Not sure we did make that much from the banks to be honest but I might be wrong. Currently they are saying the balance has not compensated the taxpayers and represent a transfer from taxpayers to the financial sector. It seems hard to really find out the truth or facts though to be honest and I'm not in the Public or Financial sectors so cannot verify.

The eventual proceeds from the disposal of the shareholdings in Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). The shares in RBS were purchased for £46 billion. The shareholding comprised ordinary shares, B shares and a single Dividend Access Share. In August 2015 some of the ordinary shares in RBS were sold for around £2.1bn reducing the holding to 72% from 79%. In March 2016, the final Dividend Access Share dividend payment of £1.2 billion was received, bringing the total receipts to £1.5 billion and retiring the Dividend Access Share. All B shares were converted to ordinary share for market value during the 15-16 financial year. As at 31 March 2016 the remaining ordinary shares had a market value of £18.8 billion. If the remaining shares were sold at market price on that date the government would make a cash loss of around £23.6bn from its shareholding in RBS.

The eventual proceeds from the disposal of the shareholdings in Lloyds Banking Group (Lloyds). The shares in Lloyds were purchased for £20.5 billion. The shareholding comprised solely ordinary shares. The shareholding in Lloyds has been reduced through sales, the first being September 2013. The sales raised a total of £16.6 billion and reduced the taxpayers’ shareholding from 39 per cent to 9 per cent. HM Treasury received dividends for the first time during the 15-16 financial year, the total dividend receipts were around £0.2 billion. The remaining shares had a market value of £4.4 billion as at 31 March 2016. If the remaining shares were sold at market price on that date the government would make a cash gain of around £0.5 billion, excluding dividends, from its shareholding in Lloyds. However, the cash gain does not take account of the cost of funding the purchases of the shares. The money needed to buy the shares was provided by longer-term funding in the form of Gilts, government bonds on which interest is payable.

The final return from Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley. The Treasury expects to recover the cash lent to Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley from the cash flows generated during their wind-down. These cash flows will principally comprise interest, repayments and redemptions arising from the mortgages and other loans to customers together with the proceeds from asset sales such as the sale of a £13 billion portfolio of NRAM loans in November 2015. As at 31st March 2016, the loan balance outstanding was £28.4bn.

[BiggestNizzy]

The point of my questions. Was not to push independence. If brexit or turns out great then everyone will be happy and all the doomsayers will disappear and be forgotten about. We are going to go down a stay with brexit or we leave and become independent. But we have to plan for the worst in all situations. I told you so does not pay the mortgage.

I don't know where you got the information to suggest that Scotland was on the social. More or less crunched the numbers the last time and and came to the conclusion that some years Scotland was up, some it was down. The almost 1 trillion debt the uk has suggests it's the UK that's skint.

So as Scotland is part of the UK that means we're not skint? Or, are we skint because we have contributed to that debt? And of course having three big foolish banks HQ'd here that went tits up has helped? Or did that contribute to the debt? Did their irresponsible lending policies only affect the UK and not Scotland, or, is Scotland sharing the responsibility? Sometimes, I do get confused when reading some posts.

The UK is rookit, I have to apologize for getting my numbers wrong. The uk is £1.8t in debt
I was a trillion out.

[c8rkh]

I'm not saying the UK is not a basket case, just challenging I guess what I thought was your assumption that it was just the UK as a whole that was a basket case, and so therefore not Scotland. The debt is huge.

The point you seem to be inferring strongly, but are not saying outright, is that the UK is a basket case, but Scotland is not. The UK has a load of debt, but Scotland does not. It just does not add up to me. I actually think both the UK and Scotland as a single entity are basket cases and are both screwed unless we change the current trajectory.

My worry for an Independent Scotland is our ability to balance the books on our own. It's a size and scale thing. The EU is roughly 580m people. It has size and scale, but it is also 28 different countries so is not performing optimally, part of the reason they are driving tighter integration and unity, more of a holistic view, and less of an individual view.

The UK is roughly 62m people. It still has size and scale and a very wide and diverse income base. It also has the City of London, and as such the whole of the UK benefits and we encourage local national identity, though strangely, not for England. Even Deutsche Bank has just announced a new, large banking office for the City of London and has negotiated a 25 year lease. The City is still going to be a power house post Brexit, maybe not the power house it was though.

When we get to Scotland. We say we want independence yet we want to divorce from the UK (which is passing more and more powers to Holyrood through devolution) to embrace a deeper relationship with the EU that wants more central control and uniformity. What's independent about that? Also, Scotland is a nation of 5m people, so it does not have scale, hence the disproportionate impact on the Scottish economy and tax take from the decline in the Oil price. We need to invest and diversify our base for generating income and tax receipts, so that we can cushion the blow of a fall in one specific area. Scale and volume helps this. To kick start the North Sea again, will require a huge amount of tax and finance subsidy. Where will we get this from when the bank is already broke? Who will lend us the cash to invest again in the North Sea? We need to find a replacement for oil in our economy and we need to find it quickly. But then building a replacement will take time, and it will take money.

As for the debt and deficits, the real point that we have to accept that is that right now Scotland is in no better a place than he UK as a whole. Scotland's current deficit amounts to 9.7 per cent of Scottish GDP, compared with an overall UK deficit of 4.9 per cent of GDP. So you could argue with strength that with Scotland out of the Union, the rUK figure would be even lower! In Scotland, we raised on average £10,000 per citizen in taxes last year. However, we spent on average £12,800. Clearly there is an issue that will need addressing and spending more than we earn is not going to reduce our deficit is it? An when independent, where will the cash to cover that extra spend come from?

So, even before the rUK lands us with our fair share of the debt to service - which will cost us more to service as an independent country as we are smaller, have a lower income to debt ratio, so are a bigger risk of default - we are going to struggle.

We could very much find ourselves in a situation where we have divorced from our biggest trading partner by far - very far - the rUK and where we are, for a time, outside of the EU. What impact will that have on our trade and what plans do the SNP have for this post independence - and saying it's folly that we will not be in the EU is not a credible answer and not one to base our future on. What is the actual position for Scotland to joint he EU? We might not be at the back of the queue like Sturgeon says - I can believe that, but we will still be in the "queue" and therefore how long will it take for us to get back in to the EU and what will we need to sign up to to get that membership? The Euro? Shengen and free movement? If yes, then that has massive implications for our relationship with our biggest trading partner, the rUK. We are not like Northern Ireland:Ireland. They can have an open border and even free movement of people as we can move the "border checks" to the Irish/NI airports and sea ports. This would not be too hard to do and the Irish Sea acts as a nice physical barrier between the Shengen area of Ireland and the mainland UK. You cannot say the same with Scotland, so to simply say "it's the same" as Sturgeon has done is just not credible.

Hopefully non of the above is alarmist or sensationalising anything. I've tried to base it on verifiable facts as opposed to hearsay and common untruths or convenient "views". The question over our fiscal ability to sustain our current level of spending and standards of national living have been completely glossed over in the Independence debate (yes, we could say the thing about Brexit but this thread is about Indyref2, not Brexit so we should stop deflecting). The SNP does not have a credible fiscal plan for Independence. It does not have an answer to how current standards of public services (Health, education, care, police, etc.) will be maintained post independence. It does not even discuss these things right now. Instead, it deflects the conversation elsewhere.

The short answer is that post independence, whether we like it or not, our fiscal and trading situation will deteriorate pretty rapidly. As outlined above, you cannot spend 28% more than you earn every month without quickly creating a big problem. So, front services will be hit and will decline. Taxes will need to go up. Benefits will fall. Capital projects will stop. There is a word for all of this. It is called Austerity! The difference this time round will be it will not be imposed on us by a UK Tory government from Westminster. It will imposed by an independent Scottish Government from Holyrood! The SNP have form on Austerity, despite banging on about the "Tory Austerity" for the past 8 years. The council tax free, a key policy of the SNP over the past 8 or so years, is by its very nature an Austerity measure that has really hurt front line, local services.

Hope this is balanced and adds to the debate. I guess all i am looking for, like most other people, is some simple, honest, truths and answers to some fairly fundamental questions so that I can make an informed decision. As I'm not getting these, my plan is to move out of harms way and sell up. If that's what the SNP want, then fair dinkum, but they cannot afford to lose too many of their higher rate tax payers and I'm assuming there are quite a few on here as buying, owning, tracking and whatever a sports car, even a Lotus, is not cheap!

[Scuffers]

Hope this is balanced and adds to the debate. I guess all i am looking for, like most other people, is some simple, honest, truths and answers to some fairly fundamental questions so that I can make an informed decision. As I'm not getting these, my plan is to move out of harms way and sell up. If that's what the SNP want, then fair dinkum, but they cannot afford to lose too many of their higher rate tax payers and I'm assuming there are quite a few on here as buying, owning, tracking and whatever a sports car, even a Lotus, is not cheap!

reading through this I could not argue with it.

it's pretty objective from my understanding of the situation.

[Corranga]

..lots of stuff I agree with...

Great post, and sums my position up really well too.

I worry that none of the questions will be answered though, and we'll simply end up being projected into the unknown by those blinded by finger pointing and name calling..

[Rosssco]

Ah, got the response from the UK gov on the petition I signed to stop (for what its worth) IndyRef2

"The Government has responded to the petition you signed – “Another Scottish independence referendum should not be allowed to happen”.

Government responded:


The UK Government is clear that now is not the time for a second independence referendum.


The UK needs to work together, putting all our energies into ensuring we get the right deal for the UK and for Scotland in our negotiations with the EU.

In 2014, the Scottish people decided in a legal, fair and decisive referendum to remain a strong part of the UK. The Edinburgh Agreement of 2012 committed both the UK and Scottish Governments to respecting the outcome of the Scottish referendum. Calling for a second referendum is creating damaging uncertainty for the economy, and most people in Scotland do not want the country to be plunged into another divisive campaign. All our focus should be on our negotiations with the EU and working together to get the right deal for Scotland and the right deal for the UK. It would be unfair to the people of Scotland to ask them to make a crucial decision without knowing what our future partnership with the EU will be or what the alternative for an independent Scotland would look like.

As the Prime Minister has set out, we will strengthen the Union of the four nations that comprise our United Kingdom. We will negotiate as one United Kingdom, taking account of the specific interests of every nation and region of the UK. When it comes to the powers that we will take back from Europe, we will consult fully on which powers should reside in Westminster and which should be passed on to the Devolved Administrations.

This will be an opportunity to determine the level best placed to take decisions on these issues, ensuring power sits closer to the people of the UK than ever before. It is the expectation of the Government that the devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will see a significant increase in their decision-making power as a result of this process.

Scotland Office"

[thinfourth]

Increase in holyroods decision making power!

Well that is a trigger for Indy ref 2 if i have ever saw one.

The SNP will be outraged at the idea of replacing all their MSPs with people with a brain