Scottish Independance - debate

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KingK_series
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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by KingK_series » Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:32 am

David wrote:It's a myth that the Irish shared the pound - they basically copied the pound system and pegged it to the UK pound. The value was kept the same by the Irish government and bank in much the same way the UK pound was pegged to the Deutsche Mark prior to Black Wednesday. In those days, the Governments decided the exchange rates - a policy that eventually failed due to the high costs involved. It did worked for Ireland in the period when currency was heavily controlled - remember those days was when you could only take £50 out of the country, and it was written in your passport. When visiting some countries it was even illegal to take their currency home with you - spend it or give it back. Very different times.

In today's IT world, it is nonsense to compare the past experience of Ireland.

Exactly right David!

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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by r10crw » Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:47 am

Unless done already and I missed how about someone creating an SE poll? (I dont know how :D )

Probably need two polls, one yes/no the other should include Devo Max?
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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by pete » Sat Apr 19, 2014 5:16 pm

David wrote:It's a myth that the Irish shared the pound - they basically copied the pound system and pegged it to the UK pound. The value was kept the same by the Irish government and bank in much the same way the UK pound was pegged to the Deutsche Mark prior to Black Wednesday. In those days, the Governments decided the exchange rates - a policy that eventually failed due to the high costs involved. It did worked for Ireland in the period when currency was heavily controlled - remember those days was when you could only take £50 out of the country, and it was written in your passport. When visiting some countries it was even illegal to take their currency home with you - spend it or give it back. Very different times.

In today's IT world, it is nonsense to compare the past experience of Ireland.
I thought you were on my side - oh I've lost track of who is for and who is against.

Ireland used the pound for many years. They kept parity with the pound, presumably by buying sterling, until 1978. I think in 1977 you could take more than 50 quid out of the country. This is a currency union of sorts. Well according to Wikipedia anyway.

I am not for an instant suggesting the two are the same, merely using this as an example that refutes some of the objections that have been raised.

So there.
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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by David » Sat Apr 19, 2014 7:03 pm

pete wrote:
I thought you were on my side - oh I've lost track of who is for and who is against.


So there.
I'm not really on any side. But as issues surface I think the accuracy, and perspective, is important.

Simon's post, although it is putting some strong NO arguments forward, probably is helping the YES vote more. The Scottish voters don't need to be told they don't understand the arguments - they are more than are capable of digesting the debate and making up their own minds. What Simon doesn't get is the passion some people have for their side of the debate. A colleague is a strong and passionate YES campaigner, and talking to her it is clear the cost of independence is not an issue for her - she'd happily return to crofting if that was what needed. Who are we to deny her that choice?
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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by renmure » Sat Apr 19, 2014 7:51 pm

David wrote: A colleague is a strong and passionate YES campaigner, and talking to her it is clear the cost of independence is not an issue for her - she'd happily return to crofting if that was what needed. Who are we to deny her that choice?
Well, to be honest, that is where I have an issue. My own thoughts are that there will be a lot of YES campaigners and supporters who similarly don't really have an issue with others paying the cost of independence but won't be happy if we all unfortunately end up crofting again.
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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by j2 lot » Sat Apr 19, 2014 8:58 pm

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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by Mikie711 » Sat Apr 19, 2014 11:40 pm

renmure wrote:
David wrote: A colleague is a strong and passionate YES campaigner, and talking to her it is clear the cost of independence is not an issue for her - she'd happily return to crofting if that was what needed. Who are we to deny her that choice?
Well, to be honest, that is where I have an issue. My own thoughts are that there will be a lot of YES campaigners and supporters who similarly don't really have an issue with others paying the cost of independence but won't be happy if we all unfortunately end up crofting again.
I think that is a touch melodramatic. I for one don't mind if it costs a bit more, and trust me I ain't no crofter and already pay a fair amount of tax . Just rather see it being spent closer to home.
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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by renmure » Sun Apr 20, 2014 12:19 am

In that case you don't come into the above category. That still leaves "a lot" who do.
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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by Mikie711 » Sun Apr 20, 2014 12:49 am

To be fair that is a far wider issue than just "YES campaigners and supporters who similarly don't really have an issue with others paying the cost of independence" that kind of sums up what is wrong with the welfare state as a whole. And that could take up pages and pages of a thread all by itself.

Labeling it only at the independence campaign is unfair IMHO. There are plenty people in Scotland as well as the UK quite prepared to sit back and reap the benefit of other peoples hard work.
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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by KingK_series » Sun Apr 20, 2014 5:27 pm

Mikie711 wrote:
renmure wrote:
David wrote: A colleague is a strong and passionate YES campaigner, and talking to her it is clear the cost of independence is not an issue for her - she'd happily return to crofting if that was what needed. Who are we to deny her that choice?
Well, to be honest, that is where I have an issue. My own thoughts are that there will be a lot of YES campaigners and supporters who similarly don't really have an issue with others paying the cost of independence but won't be happy if we all unfortunately end up crofting again.
I think that is a touch melodramatic. I for one don't mind if it costs a bit more, and trust me I ain't no crofter and already pay a fair amount of tax . Just rather see it being spent closer to home.

What makes you think it will cost just "bit" more?




The true costs of Sottish Independence
By Teresa Hunter


Uncertainty surrounding the currency, interest rates, taxation, regulation, investor protection and financial stability of an independent Scotland look set to trigger a flight to safety, with hundreds of billions of pounds pouring south as polls narrow ahead of the Scottish independence vote in September.

Today, Standard Life, a pensions and savings giant woven into the fabric of Edinburgh, became the first major company to warn it may move part of its multi-billion pound operations to England if there is a yes vote.

Scotland is a big provider of financial services, managing £750 billion of pensions and investments. Its banks serve more than 40 million account-holders. But nine out of 10 customers of institutions based north of the border, live south of it.

Analysts agree that an independent Scotland, like many small economies, could face higher interest rates, higher taxes, higher costs and greater financial instability than the rest of the UK. These could cut returns, push up charges and increase volatility. Such risks would not be welcomed by savers.

Many are expected to protect their funds by moving money south, where they will continue to operate in sterling, have interest set by the Bank of England and enjoy the protections and compensation schemes run by UK financial regulators and ombudsmen, underwritten by the Westminster government.
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Tom McPhail, head of pensions research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “If you are living in England, you wouldn’t buy a pension from a French company based in France, so why would you invest your savings in Scotland, if it had a different currency, a different set of rules and in a wholly different jurisdiction?”

Angus Armstrong, a director at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), said: “We are approaching the referendum without any clarity about currency and many other matters, and this is not a satisfactory state of affairs. It is creating nervousness for investors.”

Andy Scott, a senior actuary at Punter Southall, is concerned that employers are unprepared for the upheaval independence could deliver for company pension schemes. He said: “The implications could be huge, and companies have not begun to think about it.”

So, if you are one of the 10m personal or company pension savers with Standard Life, Scottish Widows, or Aegon, an investor with the likes of Aberdeen Asset Managers, Baillie Gifford, SVM Asset Management, Scottish Friendly and Alliance Trust, or an account holder with Royal Bank of Scotland, NatWest, Bank of Scotland and Lloyds, which are registered in Scotland, what should you do next?

We outline the risks ahead.

1. The referendum

Although the unionists are consistently ahead in the polls, their lead has narrowed. The latest Panelbase poll shows nationalists at 37pc and unionists at 47pc.

2. How safe will my money be?

For most investors the crucial consideration is security. While the Scottish National Party (SNP) has promised financial regulation and compensation equivalent to the UK’s existing safety nets, many doubt this could be delivered. Worryingly, no work of any kind has begun on establishing a new financial regulator or financial ombudsman system, which would give investors comfort that their money is securely and competently safeguarded, and they have redress to a consumer watchdog when institutions fall short. The Financial Conduct Authority says that without a Yes vote there is no mandate to prepare for change.

Given the smaller Scottish private sector, which accounts for less than half the economy, it is not clear that Scotland could afford compensation schemes equivalent to those provided currently. The biggest risk would be the ability of the fledgling economy to withstand a major financial shock. The Westminster Treasury puts the liabilities of Scottish banks at 1,254pc of an independent Scotland’s economy as measured by GDP (gross domestic product). This would make deposits significantly more risky than the disgraced Icelandic banks, which had assets of 880pc of GDP.

By contrast, the UK banking sector, including Scotland’s banks, is around 492pc of total UK GDP.

3. What happens to the currency?

Chancellor George Osborne has said an independent Scotland cannot keep the pound, and the SNP has been given short shrift by European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso. This could leave an independent Scotland shadowing sterling or the euro, in the same way Panama shadows the dollar. This arrangement could be highly volatile and would introduce a currency risk for UK investors.

4. Interest rates

The expectation is that a new Scottish Government will issue gilts, and that interest rates would likely be higher to reflect its challenges. The NIESR predicts that with a stable currency and political harmony with Westminster or Europe, 10-year bond yields will be 0.75pc-1.65pc higher than UK bonds. With no political union – the more likely scenario – the spread will be higher.

The prospect of a higher return could be attractive to some, but it would come with risks, not least that of saving in a weaker currency.

Similarly, Scotland might be able to offer a more attractive annuity income for those nearing retirement. However, retirees could lose out when converting the pension back into sterling.

5. Tax

SNP leader Alex Salmond has pledged to cut corporation tax by 3pc.

However, the Institute of Fiscal Studies is doubtful whether Scotland could sustain lower taxes. It believes that in the longer-term, as the revenue from North Sea oil dries up, taxes would have to rise, or spending be cut.

Stuart Adam, of the IFS, said: “There are differing views on how quickly the oil will run out, but it will run out. Scotland’s population is ageing faster than the rest of the UK. Pension bills will rise. Taxes will have to go up or spending be cut, and the sooner it makes adjustments the easier it will be.”

UK taxpayers could find their savings subject to higher income, or capital gains tax. Property owners could also be penalised.

6. Cheap Flights

One bit of good news is that Salmond has indicated he plans to first cut and then abolish air passenger duty. Those living close to the border may find it pays to fly from Edinburgh or Glasgow.

7. State Pensions

The SNP says the state pension will remain the same as the UK, although it would like to introduce a lower pension age.

Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown has warned that rather than improvements, the state pension could be placed at risk by independence.

Any divergence in state pension arrangements will be of concern to those whose careers or retirement plans straddle the border.

Earning pension at a different rate in both jurisdictions could lead to confusion, but what about annual increases?

Retirees in Australia, Canada, South Africa and many other countries are bitter that their pensions are frozen at retirement because Governments cannot agree reciprocal upratings.

8. Company Pensions

Independence will mean massive disruption for occupational schemes.

Scott said: “Most big UK companies have employees north and south of the border. Potentially every cross-border scheme will have to be divided.

“The Scottish part could be in a different currency, with different tax relief and regulations. Payrolls will have to be adjusted.

“How do you divide a scheme and decide which employees should go into which part? Every time staff cross the border do they change schemes?”

All this pushes up costs exponentially, as would the requirement for a new regulator. The Pension Protection Fund safety net, which was set up to operate in the UK, cannot be called upon to rescue failed schemes in another country.

9. Personal Pensions

Different interest rates, currency, taxes, regulators and compensation systems, between Scotland and the UK, would inflate costs for firms operating in both jurisdictions, which would have to be paid for by investors, thereby cutting their retirement income.

Moreover, firms may be required to hold higher levels of capital to make up for the scantier rescue resources of a smaller economy. This, too, would squeeze returns. With-profit funds could be particularly badly impacted.

Tom McPhail, head of pensions research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “If I had money in a with-profits fund in Scotland, I’d be seriously thinking about my options.”

Customers are advised to begin contacting their providers and ask what will happen in the event of a Yes vote. One possible scenario is that some Scottish institutions would set up major operating companies south of the Border.

10. Isas and other tax breaks

Tax breaks, such as Isas and those available to friendly societies, are offered by the UK Government to its own nationals and according to UK tax law. These cannot exist in a foreign country, as Scotland would become.

11. Banking

The more than 40 million non-Scots with accounts at banks registered in Scotland face two major worries.

Firstly, in the event of another banking crisis, would the Scottish economy be sufficiently strong to rescue and safeguard their cash? But these customers would also no longer have access to the UK financial ombudsman system. In time, Scotland would be expected to establish its own financial ombudsman, but it could operate quite differently and English consumers – and their MPs – would have no political influence over it.

12. Free care for the elderly

Scotland boasts free long-term care for the elderly. However, this support is highly restricted. It only covers personal care, so people in care homes and nursing homes are still charged accommodation costs. Support depends on the state of local government finances, which means rules and means tests are applied differently between councils. There are continuing questions about the sustainability of the pledge.

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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by r10crw » Sun Apr 20, 2014 5:54 pm

Quite interesting article in Scotland on Sunday today, they are incidentally against the yes vote.

Latest independant poll of 1000+ folks from all over Scotland, some of the basics,

For 48%, Against 52%. Actually 39% 42% and 19% dont know.

More interesting was some of the stats especially on age groups,

16 years to around 54 sit aproximately 38% yes to 42% no which reflects the national average. Aged 55- 65 is 43% for 38% against. Then you look at 65+ and its 36% yes with 53% no. Seems quite a change?

The other perhaps more interesting was the volume of English living in Scotland which currently stands at 460K, or 10%. 23% will vote no which is of course there right but not indicative of the majority.
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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by tut » Sun Apr 20, 2014 8:10 pm

I think the reason for that Craig is that the 65+ income is mainly from State Pension and Works Pension so they are in a fairly stable position, can not be made redundant, and do not want to risk anything changing that.

It is highly unlikely that it would, but on the other hand is there anything to show that a Yes Vote would be beneficial to them? I would have thought that the biggest swing would have come from the young Scots that think Independence would make a change to their lives.

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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by Mikie711 » Sun Apr 20, 2014 11:52 pm

Simon, I do wish you would stop cutting and pasting large chunks of someone else opinion.

Oh and here's a question for you, how is the UK's economy going to fair after a yes vote, all the assumption are that everything will be peachy south of the border. Given that 10% of it's GDP just disappeared of the table I doubt there will be no impact on the remaining UK economy and the impact may well be felt more strongly, so you may be better off north rather than south of the border.
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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by robin » Mon Apr 21, 2014 12:05 am

Simon,

Rather than posting massive screeds of cut-n-paste text and expecting everyone to read through it to find the bits that demonstrate your point, perhaps you could make your point by yourself and extract those bits of text that are relevant as quotes; if you think an article is of interest in its entirety, feel free to link to to it.

I think it is naive to believe that there is any such thing as "never" in politics, so whatever you or they say now, I am quite sure that if presented with a vote for independence the respective governments would come to some compromises.

Before the fact people will talk in hard facts about stuff they cannot really make categorical statements about, in the hope that nobody picks them up on it. For example:
11. Banking

The more than 40 million non-Scots with accounts at banks registered in Scotland face two major worries.
The biggest worry here being that whether or not you're a Scot has little to do with this point - it's where you live that counts ;-)
Firstly, in the event of another banking crisis, would the Scottish economy be sufficiently strong to rescue and safeguard their cash? But these customers would also no longer have access to the UK financial ombudsman system. In time, Scotland would be expected to establish its own financial ombudsman, but it could operate quite differently and English consumers – and their MPs – would have no political influence over it.
The banking crisis comment is mixed up. The economy could no doubt afford to pay out on the deposit guarantee scheme - "safeguarding their cash" - but that wouldn't really help if the bank goes bust, because it will take too many assets and businesses down with it. So the question should be can the central bank bail out all banks in its jurisdiction with no lost deposits ... I would say the answer is no, whether in UK, rUK or Scotland.

Who says that the banks won't simply remain part of the UK scheme and be treated as foreign banks by Scotland? In due course the banks could open up subsidiaries in Scotland that were part of whatever regulatory framework Scotland invents, and perhaps they would eventually insist on customers resident in Scotland moving their accounts to these new subsidiaries.

Finally, any "English" consumer (presumably she means any consumer residing in rUK, but hey, English is close enough ;-)) would not be bound to keep their money in a Scotch bank - if they had any concerns, they could simply move their money to an "English" bank. In fact I would bet that part of the existing regulatory framework precludes a UK bank from moving customer accounts out of the UK without explicit customer agreement.

Oh, and of course at least one of the two banks she is referring to is owned by the UK tax payer ...

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Re: Scottish Independance - debate

Post by pete » Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:24 am

Stuart Adam, of the IFS, said: “.... Scotland’s population is ageing faster than the rest of the UK..."
That's explain the reduced life expectancy then. The Scots don't die sooner, they just age quicker.
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