Independence

[scottishselise]

his reponse "good man, f the english, f the english!" ..

Sadly that is the one and only reason some people will vote for independence

I agree, it is sad. I was laughing at the stupidty / ignornace of the comment, not that it is actually a valid amusing comment.

[PhilA]

thinking on it.... i would say that the SNPs are romantics....
Theres no good financial reason, theres no good cultural reason.
I think its just really romantic

[Edin430]

Would Scotland, as an independent country, have been able to recover from the Banking crisis? No... We could not have afforded the c.£100bn required to get us out of that mess. That says it all to me really. I am lead to believe that we could afford in good economic times to run the country on our own two feet - until Oil & Gas supplies start to slow that is. At any hint of an economic slump we'd be back knocking on English/European doors to rescue us.

That aside, IMO, it's all just one big power pull for AS. I think he's an arse, driving home the "for the people" message when really he's only got his own agenda in mind. I wish we hadn't voted for him.

Do I want independence, not in the slightest. I think it will be the biggest mistake we'd have ever made. Do I think it will happen, yes! Why? Because, as mentioned above, we have so many stupid people in this country with the ridiculous braveheart attitude of "f*ck the English" and the unfortunate bit is they will be the ones that decide the fate of the entire UK population. Unreal.

[BiggestNizzy]

Would Scotland, as an independent country, have been able to recover from the Banking crisis? No...

Yes, England would have been exposed to 90% of the debt (RBS own Natwest who are a "bigger bank" for example ). So they would have bailed them out anyway. They could have stuck 2 fingers up and said no but they would have found themselves in a sh*t.

As far as the economics of it all go Scotland would probably be ok and very little would probably change, nobody is going to rebuild Hadrians wall ffs.

[max1966]

The question of national debt is apt if you consider the Peacock's situation.

A shopping group with net profit to April 10 of £27M, not bad though not sure of their turnover. Sadly due to £77M in bank loan and overdraft charges that turns into a £56M loss. Guess what they can't re-finance and are heading down the swanny with £240M debt, that's a lot of creditors.

Now as an independent country with our share of the national debt and what I imagine will be a terrible trade deficit and overwhelming public sector expenditure, how will a balance be achieved?

I guess AS can always tax the O&G and related industry more heavily as they are doing so well, sadly I doubt any one industry will support an economy the size of Scotland's and as I can't think of any other (perhaps whisky) major industry that is riding out the recession really well, taxing O&G and the rich is the only way.

cheers Nizzy, come try a depressed industry or for a laugh why don't we all just vote yes, it will probably be OK FREEDOM.

[Mikie711]

I have now trolled the internet and listen/watched quite a few debates on the subject and it would seem the economics of it all are of little concern to economists but hotly debated by everyone else. The consensus in economic circles is that little would change however how Scotland would promote economic growth is of a concern due to the fact that AS hasn't said how this would be handled. They really need to come up with a post independence plan to show how they plan to stimulate growth and encourage business in the event that it happened. All very well campaigning for an independent Scotland but they need to show why it would be of benefit to the country in the short, middle and long term.
No point holding a referendum, winning and then wondering what the hell to do next. It may also help in quiet the neigh sayers and give a clearing indication of where it might all lead.

Edit: one of the studies I read was from an unexpected source. Carlos III University of Madrid, the Toulouse School of Economics in France, the Southern Methodist University of the USA and the New Moscow School of Economics collaborated to produce an economic model to try and predict weather countries would be better off if they split from one another. Not aimed specifically at Scotland but applied to a number of countries. Interesting take on the situation especially when applied to other countries.

Edit (again): One by product of this thread is that the majority of posters and readers (myself included) will have been off and researched, to a greater or lesser extent, the ramifications of a independent Scotland and will now be a lot better informed on the subject
Which is a good thing.

[robin]

I believe it's change for change's sake.

The SNP have now stated that we will be using Sterling post-independence until the euro looks like a better bet (that'll be a long time coming I suspect). If our economy gets out of sync with the ex-UK economy we'll be shafted one way or the other as the currency exchange rate and/or central bank interest rates will be wrong. If our economy doesn't get out of sync with the ex-UK economy, you might ask what the point of independence was supposed to be ...

I don't understand all the responsibilities of the UK central bank, but I'll bet that if torn between two conflicting requirements, Scotland's needs won't come first.

Cheers,
Robin

(P.S. I have an uncharitable suspicion that we're using Sterling post-independence because Mr Osborne said we couldn't ).

[Kelvin]

I still think Scotland will be forced into the Euro as a condition of becoming a member of the EU in its own right if it meets the necessary criteria. An independent Scotland with the Euro suits the German/Franco cause of forcing Britain to reconsider Euro membership. Osborne said he would block Scotland using Sterling anyway although I also think this is a ruse to boost the no campaign as I doubt he would really block it. That said, I bet they would insist on Scotland using English printed notes lol.

[pete]

I still think Scotland will be forced into the Euro as a condition of becoming a member of the EU in its own right if it meets the necessary criteria. An independent Scotland with the Euro suits the German/Franco cause of forcing Britain to reconsider Euro membership. Osborne said he would block Scotland using Sterling anyway although I also think this is a ruse to boost the no campaign as I doubt he would really block it. That said, I bet they would insist on Scotland using English printed notes lol.

Osborne can stop Scotland using BOS or RBS banknotes and force an independent Scotland to start printing it's own currency (via a central bank). It can't stop Scotland from pinning its currency to Sterling.

The BoE will not take any notice of Scotland's interests though when deciding monetary policy - which is something I do not understand why any country would want but I'm not an economist.
So Robin is right that we might suffer, but that is also one of the reasons in favour of independence. The BoE already skews monetary in favour of the SE of England at the expense of the rest of the country - it has to. (Our economy works by the richest areas subsidising the poorest. So the policy has to be to encourage growth in the richer areas as 5% growth of loads is much better than 5% growth of not much.)

The inability to run one's own monetary policy is one of the reasons that Euro zone countries are having such problems with unemplyment - if you can't devalue your currency (and thus your debts, and make exports more desirable etc) then the labour market has to take the pain. I think.

But even this isn't the end of it, Switzerland has just pinned their currency to the Euro because its currency was getting too strong and they feared that its economy would contract. So if the Swiss Franc keeps getting stronger Switzerland will print money in order to devalue and maintain it's currencies relationship to the Euro...
Too strong a currency as bad as too weak...

(Some of that might not be right, feel free to dissect it if you want - I'd be interested to know where I went wrong though).

[pete]

Would Scotland, as an independent country, have been able to recover from the Banking crisis? No...

Yes, England would have been exposed to 90% of the debt (RBS own Natwest who are a "bigger bank" for example ). So they would have bailed them out anyway. They could have stuck 2 fingers up and said no but they would have found themselves in a sh*t.

As far as the economics of it all go Scotland would probably be ok and very little would probably change, nobody is going to rebuild Hadrians wall ffs.

I've heard the SNP say that but are you sure it's right?
AS used to love Fred and RBS, telling them how important they were to Scotland yadda yadda yadda. But now he's of the opinion that if Scotland had been independent the "Scottish company" would have been bailed out by the English government.

But ABN Amro had massive sub prime exposure. Was it bailed out by the Netherlands or was it now part of RBS so its liabilities covered by the UK?

(I think I know that one but I could be wrong)

[Noops]

Try Joan's downfall on youtube , fairly whipping up a storm........... not as funny as the elise version???, calm down folks we used to have a sence of humour before this indepandance twaddle

[Tommy Twist]

Greg I think the legal battle is over weather

Are they pledging to do something about the weather?!

Well... I was an independence sceptic, but that could win my vote at a raffle-rendum!

[tut]

Still catching up with what it will all mean, but it has just been decided for me after listening to AS on the news. It seems we would have a separate Army, Navy, and Air Force, and the nuclear deterrent from Faslane would be kicked out over many years and billions of pounds.

http://www.helensburghadvertiser.co.uk/ ... ed-faslane

The castrating of the present UK Forces is bad enough, to split it again and give Scotland a token force that would rival Luxembourg's is just farcical. General Salmond anyone?

tut

[Mr Momo]

One by-product of this thread is that the majority of posters and readers (myself included) will have been off and researched, to a greater or lesser extent, the ramifications of a independent Scotland and will now be a lot better informed on the subject
Which is a good thing.

I'm with you on this There's plenty of time to sort some of the final details out before the referendum

This used to be a really great car forum, now it's more than that

[tut]

Robin for PM...........vote for us "The S_E Party", you do not have to be Scottish or own an Elise, we are here for you.

tut