One for the maths experts...

[rossybee]

A spot of Googling says the biggest ticket share was 133 winners, each getting a mere £122,500 share of the £16m jackpot back in 1995. That's the event I'd vaguely remembered.

Aye, and ISTR a joke at the time about the guy calling his boss Monday morning saying something along the lines of "err see when I told you to stick your job up your ar$e?"

[Corranga]

A good few years ago my brother got 5 numbers and thought we was in for a £100k or something , he got £250 quid.

I remember in the early days, getting 5 meant a decent haul, and 5+bonus often lead to more than all 6 (due to splitting between multiple winners for the jackpot, and 5+B being a predetermined amount I think.

They obviously reduced all of the other sums to keep the headline figure high as time went on.

[whaleys]

Random question this but it's been bugging me, and I consider myself quite good at maths

The national lottery: pick a number, say 12, you have the same odds of number 12 coming out as any other number in the machine, right? So realistically you could choose any set of numbers you want, your odds of winning don't increase or decrease. But realistically NOBODY would choose 1-2-3-4-5-6-7, because somehow it feels even less likely that not only will your numbers come up, they'll be in a perfect sequence. Hold on, we've just established that the odds of any number coming up is the same as any other number coming up, so what am I missing??

- Probability

The lottery is gambling and gambling is all based on odds and probability, probability being the hardest for people to get their heads around as its not necessarily quantifiable, therefore not easily introduced into the odds equation. The odds of 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 coming up are the same as any random set, however the probability is far less, however it doesn't rule it out, hence the gamble

EDIT: Just re-read Robins first post in which he alludes to probability so was kinda covered...

[tut]

But probability has nothing to with randomness which is what occurs when you select 6 numbers out of 49.

Every time you toss a coin the odds are exactly the same of it being heads or tails. If it comes down 6 times on the trot on tails, you could think that it is more probable to come down heads on the 7th. However the odds would still be exactly the same, 50:50.

tut

[a4drk]

A factory worker in Gilmour & Dean in Glasgow (a printers, I used to work in years ago )
My mate works here & he told me this .....
"Do you remember Robert Smith?" - In the repro dept?
yeah ....
Well, he came in on Monday morning and announced he won the lottery - and said "feck the lot of ye's" and walked out.... never came back.
About a year later - someone found out that this was a load of rubbish & he never won it!

Don't know why he done it to this day.........

David

[pete]

If you do a number of lines you can increase your chances of winning if they overlap. That is - you can increase the chances of winning more.

that is if you put on 1-2-3-4-5-6 then the next line could be 2-3-4-5-6-7 etc. (Obviously the numbers don't have to be sequential, that was just for illustration. The probability of sequential numbers coming up is exactly the same as a list of any 6 numbers).

But if you have sequential lines, and one of your lines does come up, some of your other lines will come up too, so you will win more.

I don't do the lottery but I have some very clear ideas what I will do with the money if I win. (I've found if I do it, and I don't win, I am very slightly disappointed and very slightly worse off.
If I don't do it, my happiness remains unchanged and I am very slightly richer.
As the point of doing the lottery is not to win money but to win happiness then by not doing it I have a net happiness gain. So I win every week.)

[tut]

I have bought as many Lottery tickets as I have Big Macs, or watched Big Brother.

tut

[robin]

I take it a step further. I have four secret numbers that I would always use if I were to play, which I don't. As my numbers never come up it would seem, I am even happier because I've won a pound (or is two now?)

[robin]

- Probability

The lottery is gambling and gambling is all based on odds and probability, probability being the hardest for people to get their heads around as its not necessarily quantifiable, therefore not easily introduced into the odds equation.

Err, the probability (and odds - these are the same thing, except for how you say them) is exactly quantifiable.

The odds of 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 coming up are the same as any random set, however the probability is far less, however it doesn't rule it out, hence the gamble

What?

They are exactly the same. When you say the probability is far less, it's far less than what?

Cheers,
Robin

[robin]

But probability has nothing to with randomness which is what occurs when you select 6 numbers out of 49.

The probability density of a truly random function is a constant (graphically it's a horizontal line stretching off to infinity, or the limits of the function, as appropriate). Thus randomness and probability are linked in an explicit and unavoidable way. So you're wrong.

Every time you toss a coin the odds are exactly the same of it being heads or tails. If it comes down 6 times on the trot on tails, you could think that it is more probable to come down heads on the 7th. However the odds would still be exactly the same, 50:50.
tut

You are correct.

So on all the evidence we have so far, the probability of Tut's comments on maths being right is 50:50


Cheers,
Robin

[jimbo]

I'm so glad other people like this sort of stuff too!

Sent from my GT-I8750 using Board Express

[tut]

As far as maths goes Robin, that is a complement.

tut

[graeme]

Here's the real interesting lottery maths question I think:

As Robin already said, if you buy one ticket your odds of matching 6 numbers are 1 in 13,983,816.

What are your odds of a jackpot if you buy 2 different tickets?

Please submit your answer by post on the back of a lucky dip.

[tut]

You lose £2...........

tut

[robin]

It doesn't matter that you bought two tickets. Your chances of each (different) ticket winning are 1 in 13,983,816.

So if you have two tickets, you have 2 in 13,983,816. Etc.

Although that feels so obvious I am now wondering whether there is a QI-style klaxon about to be unleashed