Scottish Independance - debate

[robin]

Surely it's because time passes more slowly up here due to the long summer nights?

[KingK_series]

Simon,

Rather than posting massive screeds of cut-n-paste text and expecting everyone to read through it to find the bits that demonstrate your point, perhaps you could make your point by yourself and extract those bits of text that are relevant as quotes; if you think an article is of interest in its entirety, feel free to link to to it.

I think it is naive to believe that there is any such thing as "never" in politics, so whatever you or they say now, I am quite sure that if presented with a vote for independence the respective governments would come to some compromises.

Before the fact people will talk in hard facts about stuff they cannot really make categorical statements about, in the hope that nobody picks them up on it. For example:

11. Banking

The more than 40 million non-Scots with accounts at banks registered in Scotland face two major worries.

The biggest worry here being that whether or not you're a Scot has little to do with this point - it's where you live that counts

Firstly, in the event of another banking crisis, would the Scottish economy be sufficiently strong to rescue and safeguard their cash? But these customers would also no longer have access to the UK financial ombudsman system. In time, Scotland would be expected to establish its own financial ombudsman, but it could operate quite differently and English consumers – and their MPs – would have no political influence over it.

The banking crisis comment is mixed up. The economy could no doubt afford to pay out on the deposit guarantee scheme - "safeguarding their cash" - but that wouldn't really help if the bank goes bust, because it will take too many assets and businesses down with it. So the question should be can the central bank bail out all banks in its jurisdiction with no lost deposits ... I would say the answer is no, whether in UK, rUK or Scotland.

Who says that the banks won't simply remain part of the UK scheme and be treated as foreign banks by Scotland? In due course the banks could open up subsidiaries in Scotland that were part of whatever regulatory framework Scotland invents, and perhaps they would eventually insist on customers resident in Scotland moving their accounts to these new subsidiaries.

Finally, any "English" consumer (presumably she means any consumer residing in rUK, but hey, English is close enough ) would not be bound to keep their money in a Scotch bank - if they had any concerns, they could simply move their money to an "English" bank. In fact I would bet that part of the existing regulatory framework precludes a UK bank from moving customer accounts out of the UK without explicit customer agreement.

Oh, and of course at least one of the two banks she is referring to is owned by the UK tax payer ...

Cheers,
Robin

Robin

- On Currency Union

- Salmond wants Union with fiscal rules, but control of Scottish borrowing and taxation - that is in large part his mechanism for delivering a 'better Scotland for Scots' - yet this arrangement has been proven to be an absolute disaster in the Eurozone - many people predicted it wouldn't work in Europe and much political capital has been invested by some, in saying never to the Euro, many more have adopted that stance since the Euro crisis, Carney is quite clear that that system does not work nor will it, under any circumstances, and currency Union can only be made to work with with the ceding of control of Tax, borrowing etc etc to a Federal Institution aka Canadian or US Federal govt, or in future a European Federal govrt as Europe now realises this is a practical and economic necessity not just a political goal. This is well understood and much discussed prior to current SNP vote. Everyone except Salmond, Swinney and Sturgeon understand this - [?]

Under no circumstances is going down this route in anyone's interest - not Scotland's, certainly not England's Wales etc, and it will never happen, period.


the workable option is to have a Currency Union but cede Sovereignity on the financial levers - the very opposite of what Salmond wants to achieve

- so either he is a complete idiot [really] or he knows very very very well Westminster will never agree to a shared currency, and he knows that by Westminster saying no - he can say to Scotland - "London's bullying us again", knowing full well that some people will just react to that, as David wrote above ..... and he goes on and on and on and on and on....saying, Scottish voters will not be told and It will strengthen the SNP campaign. There is plenty of evidence in this thread that this tactic works - you don't like being told that you can't have your cake and eat it -

so the question is - is Salmond a complete bloody fool? or is he totally aware of how to move the Scottish vote.

I think he's got a gift as a politician .......


..........so the question is do you all trust him? and more importantly what has he actually done with the power he has, so far?

As far as the banks are concerned, I'm not familiar with all the nitty gritty details, but only UK registered banks with their headquarters and the majority of their staff in the UK are covered by the Bank of England as a bank of last resort. Which means any banks or Pension companies of which there are many and as a huge employer of Scottish jobs, wishing to retain the Bank of England as a Bank of last resort would have to move south of the border, with a lot of jobs - several large Pension providers have already said that they will do so in the event of a yes vote - RBS almost certainly will have to - it will be a massive loss of jobs in Scotland in a very large Scottish employment sector , and there is no alternative since the banking sector in Scotland is far to big for and any new National Scottish central bank. This has been well covered in the financial press.

[renmure]

Simon, why do you personally think the UK is better together?

[pete]

Robin

- On Currency Union

- Salmond wants Union with fiscal rules, but control of Scottish borrowing and taxation - that is in large part his mechanism for delivering a 'better Scotland for Scots' - yet this arrangement has been proven to be an absolute disaster in the Eurozone

I disagree that this has been a disaster in Europe. It has been a disaster in PARTS (specifically the Southern EU states). It has not been a a disaster for Germany. I think that the reason it has been a disaster fro the Southern states is because their economies started off like this

A________________________________________________B

and were forced, in economic terms to move over night to this

A__B

Where the large A represents the Germany (and the mighty DM) and the small B a southern state, perhaps Greece. As you know robbed of the economic levers the only "lever" that was left was the job market (c.f Krugman amongst others) which has had to shift to accommodate the changes.


This is not comparable to the situation in the UK - we are presently in this position

rUK_S

ie the economies are already aligned. Post independence we will be in this position.


rUK__S

Hardly any difference and this close alignment of our economies means no big deal. It may well be that in 25 years time we will be here


rUK_________________S

But by that time the economic tools will need to be in place to allow this transition. I view the second line;


rUK__S

as being so akin to devo-max as to be indistinguishable. Carney did not say that CU would not work, but that it would require Scotland to cede some of its sovereignty. Fine by me, presently we cede too much so getting at least some of our sovereignty would be an excellent start. I know Salmond has said he does not want this but this isn't about what Salmond wants.


If you were Scottish, and wanted independence how would you do it? Would you really want massive change, you own central bank etc, straight away or would you prefer to move in smaller steps?
Maybe a federal UK is an answer. You yourself believe people in England want to be rid of Scotland - do you think a fedUK would work?


I'd love to know what you think as you've obviously put a lot of thought into it, so please try and answer rather than just pasting someone else's answer.

Cheers,

pete

[Corranga]

This is not comparable to the situation in the UK - we are presently in this position

rUK_S

ie the economies are already aligned. Post independence we will be in this position.


rUK__S

Hardly any difference and this close alignment of our economies means no big deal. It may well be that in 25 years time we will be here

pete

What proof is there of this?

How can you make such a large change to Scotland and say that the economy will remain exactly as it was?

A CEO having a heart attack can send shares in a company to the floor, yet you think that splitting up an entire country, with one part not even having a guarantee on how it's currency will work, will result in hardly any difference ?

If you were Scottish, and wanted independence

When you say 'wanted independence' do you mean are pro Yes vote - believe it's good for yourself, the country and the future, or do you actually mean wanted independence, as in YESterday voters - Mel Gibson tattoos, a can of Tennants and Robert the Bruce at the airport stylee?


As for the query about Salmond, I genuinely believe he is simply a gifted politician.
He knows exactly how to get the votes, and how to spin everything his way without having much more than a shred of how it will actually work, never mind evidence to back it up.
Lower the voting age to 16, 700th anniversary of Bannockburn, compare us to success stories like Sweden, tell the people they will get what they want, tug on the heart strings of a proud nation, stick 2 fingers up at bullies when they tell you otherwise...

Chris

[scott_e]

As for the query about Salmond, I genuinely believe he is simply a gifted politician. He knows exactly how to get the votes, and how to spin everything his way without having much more than a shred of how it will actually work, never mind evidence to back it up. Chris

Agree , Salmond is very gifted and has an end goal that he will pursue by any means. I do respect him and do believe he has Scotlands best interests at heart whether its misguided or not. I think it was Margo Mcdonald (RIP) that replied "Alex Salmond just announced his retirement date" when the referendum date was published

I seriously need to do a lot more reading before I decide for sure , just wish I could cut through the rhetoric. I guess the truth is its impossible to say how things will pan out if its a YES. My biggest fear is economic uncertainly if we are to lose £ sterling. I posted about this a year ago , heart was in the independence camp at the time but the closer we get the more nervous I get. Too many questions remain unanswered , easy option is to vote for the status quo unfortunately. I think it will be a NO. My mother ( a very active SNP member attending all conferences ) made the point that even if this referendum returns the NO vote it will likely return again in a decade.

[Mikie711]

My mother ( a very active SNP member attending all conferences ) made the point that even if this referendum returns the NO vote it will likely return again in a decade.

Took 40 years to get this one since the last.

[Corranga]

My mother ( a very active SNP member attending all conferences ) made the point that even if this referendum returns the NO vote it will likely return again in a decade.

Took 40 years to get this one since the last.

Maybe there should hold a referendum to decide when it should be

[j2 lot]

I think it was mooted by AS as a once in a lifetime chance. Doesnt mean he will stick to that though

[pete]

This is not comparable to the situation in the UK - we are presently in this position

rUK_S

ie the economies are already aligned. Post independence we will be in this position.


rUK__S

Hardly any difference and this close alignment of our economies means no big deal. It may well be that in 25 years time we will be here

pete

What proof is there of this?

There is no proof of what will happen in the future, that our economies are presently aligned I don't think I need to prove.
That Germany and Greece's economies were not aligned, which was the point I was robustly overturning, I don't think needs proof either.

How can you make such a large change to Scotland and say that the economy will remain exactly as it was?

I can say that the change will be a journey (if you look at my graph, I did a graph!) you'll see I have them slightly different after independence. This is "slightly" as opposed to the scale I have used which contrasts the difference between Germany and Greeces' economies, which was and remains huge.

A CEO having a heart attack can send shares in a company to the floor, yet you think that splitting up an entire country, with one part not even having a guarantee on how it's currency will work, will result in hardly any difference ?

In the overall scheme of things. We are not a company, if Scotland is affected then so will the UK. What affect did the Netherlands see on it's economy when it adopted the ERM?

When you say 'wanted independence' do you mean are pro Yes vote - believe it's good for yourself, the country and the future, or do you actually mean wanted independence, as in YESterday voters - Mel Gibson tattoos, a can of Tennants and Robert the Bruce at the airport stylee?

It's just a thought experiment to King, who clearly disagrees with the Yes campaign so I was wondering what he would do better. The motives don't matter...


Pete (interesting isn't it?)

[Corranga]

(interesting isn't it?)

Very

Chris

[Mikie711]

Interesting and very very complicated.

[renmure]

I'd love to know what you think as you've obviously put a lot of thought into it, so please try and answer rather than just pasting someone else's answer.

Cheers,

pete

Well, that seems to have thrown a spanner in the works

[jason]

[a thought]

The debate is interesting, but continues to essentially be like all politics. Two sides of the room saying they're right.

What I find more intriguing is what percentage of Referendum voters * can be influenced by the debate? And is that percentage what will win a majority?

Clearly (to me) a majority percentage will emotionally be Unionists or Nationalists. Their decision is made regardless of technical discussion. But there must be (and apols for the term used) an emotionally detached, neutral group in the centre who are treating it entirely academically --- ie. those to whom the efforts of argument are relevant.

Is something so major effectively being entirely in the hands of that group right? I guess that is essentially how all democracy actually works.




* I intentionally avoid using the term Scots, as so often (offensively IMHO) used, since it excludes non-Scots who are involved.

[flyingscot68]

A balanced view on the subject:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SR53bcBDOGg&sns=em


Or the best Yes vote propaganda I've seen yet.

Not safe to watch BTW.


Sailing the seas of cheese